Businessmirror Trump changed the world order and leaders don’t know what to do
After Donald J. trump became president, some of the US’S oldest allies believed they could anticipate his next move. The billionaire’s approach was unorthodox for sure, but there was certain logic.
House, an official said. Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador flew to Washington to see Trump—but Trudeau politely declined an invitation to join.
The EU has a similar approach, according to an official in Brussels. Even during the election campaign, officials said the aim is to keep channels of conversation open and resist drawing attention to setbacks or give any inkling they might prefer Biden in the White House.
Political observers can see how charged the atmosphere is.
With the US failing to contain the virus and the Black Lives Matter movement gaining momentum, Trump has tried to reignite his flagging campaign.
On July 4, celebrating American independence from English colonial reign, he blamed “the radical left” for threatening the American way of life. There are other targets, too, that complicate the political calculations.
Trump also lashed out at China in the same speech, blaming it for “secrecy, deceptions and cover-up” in its handling of the virus.
As they design strategies for dealing with the US, before and after the election, governments are increasingly finding they must do so in tandem with shaping policy on an increasingly assertive Beijing, which has made a bold bid to seize broad control of Hong Kong and defy global condemnation in the process.
That puts the UK, which controlled Hong Kong until 1997, in a particular bind. It is desperate for Trump to deliver rapidly on a trade deal to burnish its post-brexit independence and it plans to phase out China’s Huawei Technologies Co. from its 5G networks.
The EU is more reluctant to pick sides. It doesn’t help that the bloc is split between countries like Germany and France, whose leaders are as skeptical of Beijing as they are of Trump.
Italy is the perfect embodiment of that tension. Close to Trump, but ready to dive head first into cooperating with Xi Jinping’s trademark Belt and Road investment and infrastructure program.
“It has not been a good presidency for the alliance system the US built up since World War II,” said David Mulroney, a former Canadian ambassador to China. “China has taken advantage of that and begun to pressure middle powers like Canada and Australia.”
Still, Trump’s time in office hasn’t been difficult for everyone. Populists in power in Hungary and Poland feel a natural affinity to Trump’s “America First” and the chest thumping. In the EU, there is a shared enemy. Those eastern countries receive a lot of aid from the bloc but defy its rule of law.
Saudi Arabia is grateful Trump declared US support for the kingdom after allegations that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the murder of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi. A Saudi official said it was incumbent to maintain a good relationship with the president, whoever it is.
And in South Korea, Trump is seen as being integral to opening up a dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in “have good chemistry,” said Boo Seung-chan, former adviser to South Korea’s defense minister. That is a point of view contradicted by former national security adviser John Bolton in his recent memoirs.
For anyone hoping a Biden victory might restore the US to being the world’s global policeman, officials warn that American politics might have changed forever even if Biden would be a well-known entity.
As Kuni Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat, put it: “Which is better, Biden or Trump for Japan? My conclusion is neither. It’s never been easy to deal with an American administration, especially a new American administration.”
Bloomberg News