A walk through the mall

Metro Manila has been back to a slow and gradually easing general community quarantine for a week now. Again we believe that going back to modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) last month was the wrong decision.

IHS Markit Ltd. is a British information provider known for its PMI or Purchasing Managers Index. “The IHS Markit Philippines Manufacturing PMI is compiled from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers.” This real-world data from the private sector is not filtered through government sources.

The latest report was released on September 1: “The Philippines manufacturing sector headed into a steeper downturn in August as quarantine measures were tightened. New orders fell sharply, as data indicated a second consecutive drop in production. Employee numbers were reduced for the sixth month running.” Note this carefully. “Data were collected on August 12 to 21, 2020,” which means the results were from the MECQ period.

“The IHS Markit Philippines Manufacturing PMI fell for the second month running from 48.4 in July to 47.3 in August, to signal a stronger deterioration in operating conditions.” We hope the number of Covid cases fell as much as the economy did from the two-week MECQ in the National Capital Region from the suggestion by the medical community.

We decided to take a firsthand look at one of the important engines of economic activity in the Philippines—the Mall. What we found was not pleasant.

Standing in line to pass from the parking garage was tolerable but depressingly slow. The critics are correct. The “sign-up” sheet for the contact tracing is about as accurate and reliable as the Commission on Elections voter registration from decades ago. Depending on that to stop the spread of Covid-19 will definitely result in the zombie apocalypse.

But it gets more ridiculous. After entering the mall, you go through the “take temperature/sign sheet” when entering the department store, 100 meters from the first check point. And you must go through this process again at the appliance store, the Italian restaurant, the barbershop, the coffee shop, the food court, the music store, the fast-food restaurant, and the convenience store.

If you leave the department store to go to the coffee shop and then go back to buy your new socks, you are checked again. Is there any wonder why people around the world have very little faith in the governments’ Covid information and response?

The number of stores that were not open is dramatic. Further, with malls being lenient of rental payments, it seemed like some stores were open—maybe upon the ”encouragement” of the mall operator—just to give the appearance of “all is well.” Showing once again that eating is a critical part of our “malling,” less than 10 percent of the former stalls and kiosks in the food court were still operating.

We observed that it appeared that almost the same percentages of people as before are buying milk tea, canvassing for a new refrigerator, and trying on shoes. The problem is that average daily mall foot traffic is probably at a realistic 10 percent of pre-covid traffic.

This is the good news. It will take months but eventually we will be at 70-80 percent of pre-covid levels. And hopefully both businesses and consumers—as happened after the Asian Financial Crisis—will come back stronger, leaner, and “meaner” to the betterment of the Philippine economy.