NEDA: TYPHOONS COULD CUT P90-B EQUIVALENT OF GROWTH
THE recent typhoons could stave off 0.15 percentage points from full-year GDP growth, per estimates of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).
In a virtual presser on Wednesday, Neda Undersecretary for Planning and Policy Rosemarie G. Edillon told reporters that this estimate would amount to around P90 billion.
However, Edillon said this is only based on initial estimates and will be updated as soon as more updates are provided to them.
“Right now, we are seeing that the impact is a bit less than the impact of [ Typhoon] Ondoy and we think that it’s really because in areas like Marikina, where there was that initial inundation, we see that the floods actually subsided more quickly than it did than [during] Ondoy,” Edillon said.
Edillon said that while the government has yet to release its fullyear GDP estimates, some recovery in spending is likely in the last quarter of the year.
The Neda official said the gradual reopening of the economy would lead to higher consumption in the last quarter compared to previous quarters.
Edillon noted that the government has already loosened restrictions such as those imposed on restaurants and hotels, provided they Covid-19-proof their establishments.
She said that this will usher in the return of more Filipinos to the work force and will enable them to earn a living. Having incomes, Filipinos would already contribute to efforts needed to boost spending and economic growth.
“It will still be challenging because we still want people to practice social distancing,” Edillon said. “If you are talking about a year- on-year growth, then it would still be much lower than what we had last year because last year we didn’t have the Covid-19. But I suppose with respect to a quarter- on- quarter then hopefully it will be an improvement and that’s also what we hope to see.”
P3.6-T loss from virus, typhoons
ON Monday, former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the Philippine economy may have lost P3.6 trillion this year due to the ongoing pandemic and the three recent typhoons.
Recto said this accounts for the P1.8trillion losses due to Covid-19 and around P1 trillion to P1.8 trillion in opportunities lost due to the typhoons.
He said this makes it difficult to believe that the government’s economic growth expectations would be within reach for 2020 and 2021.
Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (Acerd) Director Alvin P. Ang said the country’s full-year GDP could contract by 11 percent by the end of the year.
Ang said in the fourth quarter, GDP could contract by around 12 percent. This takes into account typhoon losses which could amount to losses worth 5 percent to 8 percent of the fourth- quarter GDP.
While the Office of Civil Defense estimated that only P82 billion was lost from the typhoons, the amount could be higher at around P200 billion to P300 billion, Ang said.