ILO: Successful vaccination drive paves way for recovery by year-end

COUNTRIES that could be able to embark on a successful vaccination drive against Covid-19 in the coming months would likely be on their way to economic recovery by the end of the year, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has predicted.

In a news statement issued on Monday, the labor arm of the United Nations said that mass inoculation will be a crucial factor for countries to resume most of their businesses operations within their territories.

“While there is still a high degree of uncertainty, the latest projections for 2021 show that most countries will experience a relatively strong recovery in the second half of the year, as vaccination programs take effect,” ILO said.

The Philippines is targeting by next month the inoculation of 60 million to 70 million Filipinos once the first shipment of the needed vaccine arrives.

Citing the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, ILO said the “baseline scenario” will be international working hours could decline by 3 percent, which will be equivalent to a loss of 90 million full-time jobs.

“The pessimistic scenario, which assumes slow progress on vaccination in particular, would see working hours drop by 4.6 percent, while the optimistic scenario forecasts a 1.3percent decline,” ILO said.

But even the worst-case scenario pales in comparison to the 8.8 percent lost global working hours, which translates to 255 million full-time jobs, which is approximately four times greater than the number lost during the 2009 global financial crisis.

“These massive losses resulted in an 8.3-percent decline in global labor income [before support measures are included], equivalent to $3.7 trillion or 4.4 percent of global gross domestic product,” ILO said.

Women and young workers are hardest hit by employment impact of the international economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, ILO said.