There’s good news and some bad news

The good news is that Covid vaccines are proving effective and rapidly scaling. In the long run, vaccines will help flatten the curve in many countries. Skeptics should look at the growing evidence that Covid jabs are effective. For example, real-world data from Israel and the United Kingdom validate the clinical-trial results by showing a sharp reduction in hospitalizations and deaths.

Although still far from ideal, it’s good to know that global vaccine rollout is improving. Massive inoculation programs have accelerated, especially in the US and the United Kingdom. As of April 21, more than 925 million doses have been administered across 155 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 15.9 million doses a day. In the US, 213 million doses have been given so far. In the last week, an average of 3.03 million doses per day were administered.

As of February 19, 2021 the COVA X Advance Market Commitment, a financing instrument supporting Covid-19 vaccine access for 92 low- and middleincome countries, has received the following cash donations: United States, $2 billion (the US pledged $4 billion); Germany, $1 billion; UK, $735 million; European Union, $489 million; Japan, $200 million; Canada, $181 million; Saudi Arabia, $153 million; and Norway, $141 million.

China announced in February it will provide 10 million Covid-19 vaccine doses to COVAX to meet the urgent needs of developing countries, at the request of the World Health Organization. “This is another important measure taken by China to promote the equitable distribution of vaccines, advance international cooperation in fighting the pandemic, and uphold the concept of a global community of health for all,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.

Just as important, sentiment about vaccine adoption is improving all over the world. From the Associated Press: “Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador finally got a coronavirus vaccine on Tuesday, after waffling on receiving the shot. Mexico is in a race to get its population vaccinated as case numbers have begun to rise again and the country’s estimated total death toll from Covid-19 surpassed 336,000.”

Here’s the bad news: In the past two weeks, only 2 million doses were cleared for shipment to 92 countries through COVAX, the same amount of jab injected in Britain alone. The vaccine shortage stems mostly from India’s decision to stop exporting vaccines from its Serum Institute factory because of a surge of Covid cases. The factory produces the majority of the Astrazeneca doses that COVAX counted on to supply about a third of the global population.

What’s alarming is that more infectious coronavirus variants may drive a new wave of cases in the coming months, like what is happening in India and Brazil. Variants may also reduce vaccine efficacy or enable reinfection. Data from the Astrazeneca vaccine trial in South Africa highlight the potential for variants to reduce the efficacy of vaccines.

Other vaccine data, including those from Novavax and Johnson & Johnson, show a more modest reduction in efficacy, especially against severe disease caused by these variants. And there is evidence of mutations in the US that may reduce the efficacy of vaccines. Health experts said “although the initial findings are based on very small sample sizes, we still do not know the impact of vaccines against severe disease from these strains.”

The COVAX initiative was designed to provide vaccines to countries lacking the clout to negotiate on their own for scarce supplies. Fortunately, the Philippines does not rely on the COVAX initiative alone for our jabs. But we have to get our orders soon. We can’t afford to allow the virus to spread unchecked because of the possibility that it will mutate into variants that evade the immune protection from Covid vaccines.