The window to public thought
Joseph overton was a senior vice president of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy and is known for conceiving the idea in the 1990s—posthumously called the overton Window—classifying the range of policies politically acceptable to the mainstream public at a given time.
“Politically acceptable” moves from “Unthinkable” to “Policy” with a window including “Acceptable” and “Sensible” where politicians/ candidates can safely promote these ideas to the people and probably get elected. Overton stated that an idea’s political viability depends mainly on whether it falls within this range, rather than on politicians’ individual preferences of the idea being good or not.
Two examples would be passing a law allowing women to vote and more recently allowing recreational use of marijuana. These policies were sustainable in public opinion. Yet the prohibition of alcohol, which became acceptable policy eventually, moved outside the window of public opinion to basically “unthinkable”.
While the Overton Window is a relatively new idea, I think that over time we will see far-reaching consequences from an understanding of the concept. Daniel Hallin, professor of Communication at the University of California, San Diego has a theory of news reporting called “Hallin’s spheres”. These circles of reporting are characterized as consensus, legitimate controversy, and deviance. In the sphere of consensus, journalists assume everyone agrees. The sphere of legitimate controversy includes the standard political debates, and journalists are expected to remain neutral, which, of course, rarely happens anymore. “Deviant” opinion is to be ignored.
If journalists and others like candidates/politicians are genuinely listening to the public, then it should be easy to know what is within the Overton Window of public thought. But they are not, and that particularly applies to journalists who cannot seem to move outside the Hallin sphere of assuming “everyone thinks like we do”.
The Overton Window is always shifting. But governments and journalists in particular firmly believe that they have the power to move the window.
Yet in 2019, the quarterly poll of 1,200 Filipinos by Social Weather Stations returned a rating of “excellent” for Duterte’s three-year campaign against drugs, with 82 percent satisfied due to a perception of less drugs and crime. This was despite the negative opinions from the press and media. Conversely, in 2021 a poll of US voters showed that 83 percent of respondents believe the drug war to be a massive failure regardless of 50 years of government “propaganda” to the contrary.
Presidential candidates speak of “restoring the people’s trust in government”. Apparently, the campaign consultants see that campaign promise within the Overton Window of public opinion. Yet, in Q4 2021, a poll showed 67 percent said the country was “Maybe/definitely” headed in the right direction. Duterte carried a 64 percent “Approval” and 54 percent “Trust” rating.
Further, the Edelman Trust Barometer reported last month that “Public trust in governments running the world’s democracies has fallen to new lows”. Public trust in the German government is at 46 percent, with Australia at 53 percent. Meanwhile, Thailand with its “military” government—and “Facing Crackdown on Freedoms” according to the Western press—has a 66 percent trust rating.
Note that in 2011, the Philippine government had a general “trust” rating of 7 percent, according to The Philippine Trust Index of the EON Group. In 2021 the trust percentage is 76 percent.
You want to win elections? Then look at the window instead of trying to manipulate it. The same is true for making money. And the best “window” on the economy and the economic future is the stock market.
Apparently, according to certain quarters especially in the media, Facebook and Twitter have control over the minds of We the People, determine elections, and are trying to rule the world. The stock market is stronger and wiser than all of them.