Surging fertilizer prices set to exacerbate African food crisis

ASURGE in global fertilizer prices is adding to worries about food security across sub-saharan Africa, where smallscale farmers depend largely on imports—if they even use additional nutrients at all.

With prices tripling over the past 18 months, many farmers are considering whether to forgo purchases of fertilizers this year. That leaves a market long touted for its growth potential set to shrink by almost a third, according to Sebastian Nduva, program manager at researcher group Africafertilizer.org. That could potentially curb cereals output by 30 million tons, enough to feed 100 million people, he said.

“We are likely to see a scenario where yields are depressed and this will mean that either the government will have to readjust their budgets and import food, or there will be food shortages,” Nduva said.

Sub-saharan Africa already has the world’s lowest fertilizer application rates, averaging 12 kilograms per hectare compared with a global average of 110 kilograms. With usage set to fall as input costs rise, the threat to regional food security and political stability is growing, according to Alain Sy Traoré, director of agriculture and rural development at the ECOWAS Commission.

That will increase the region’s dependence on imports at a time when food prices are near a record high. More than 20 million people across sub-saharan Africa are already on the brink of famine, according to the World Food Programme.

Soaring gas prices helped drive fertilizers higher last year, squeezing supply as increasing costs shuttered plants while producers introduced export restrictions.

While fertilizer prices in the US have eased, prices in Europe and the Middle East, the top suppliers to Africa, are yet to find any relief—a gauge of western European prices for ammonia remains at a record. Tensions over Ukraine have also been pushing up natural gas prices this month and any escalation could drive fertilizer prices even higher.

The high costs have curbed output at some of the more than 100 fertilizer blending plants in sub-saharan Africa, which largely depend on imports of the nutrient, Nduva said. Stockpiles of the nutrients are now dwindling after governments and traders delayed procurements in the hope that prices would fall.