‘Energy crunch in summer could imperil May polls’

This emphasizes the more urgent need for an energy transition based on distributed energy sources. We need to pick up its pace, because we cannot keep returning to the same situation every year,” said ICSC chief data scientist and report co-author Jephraim Manansala.

Despite experiencing low demand requirements in the beginning of the year, the NGCP placed the Luzon grid on yellow alert last month due to the forced outages of four power plants with a total generating capacity of 1,331 MW.

Given NGCP’S power outlook this May, there is a margin of 1,200 MW of operating reserves before the Luzon grid goes into red alert status. However, the ICSC’S report identified potential complications in selected coal power plants that may result in the depletion of these margin reserves:

For instance, Aboitiz Power Corp.’s GN Power Dinginin Units 1 and 2 in Bataan (1,336 MW total generating capacity), may not be fully operational by May 2022.

Unit 1 has been one of the causes of the yellow alert status raised last earlier this year due to its outage last January 11, while Unit 2 has not yet started commissioning.

Also, Semirara Mining and Power Corp.’s Calaca Unit 2 in Batangas and Aboitiz Power’s GN Power Unit 1 in Bataan (616 MW total generating capacity), which have undergone another unplanned shutdown recently, might not be able to provide their full dependable capacity. Both power plants have historically performed poorly, having unplanned outages that lasted for 10 months straight last year: Calaca Unit 2 was down from December 2020 to September 2021, while GN Power Unit 1 was down from January to November 2021.

“If there is no definite schedule as to when these coal plants can provide reliable power supply again, the DOE should take them out of what they consider dependable capacity. Keeping these plants in the scheduled total dependable capacity will only mask the power supply deficiency problem, like what is happening today,” Manansala said.

The report recommends that the DOE ensure the availability of power plants to their full dependable capacities, as well as the completion of all committed projects that have target commercial operation before May this year in order to guarantee sufficient power supply in the second quarter of 2022.

“Apart from addressing power issues in times of peak demand, we also need to address this on a long-term basis. We are making our analysis available now so that citizens can contribute by conserving electricity, because all efforts will be needed even in the most optimistic power scenario,” ICSC energy transition advisor Alberto Dalusung III said.

The group said that bulk of power consumption in the country shifted to the residential sector starting in 2020, when most Filipinos were forced to stay home amid the Covid-19 pandemic. According to ICSC, households can therefore make a significant contribution to efficiency by minimizing electricity consumption from the peak hours of 10am to 2pm. On the other hand, businesses and other private institutions can also augment power supply through solar rooftop installations, especially during summer.

“The energy transition does not mean simply going to renewables, it also means wiser, better use of energy. We as citizens have to do our share,” Dalusung added.

On the part of the Manila Electric Company, the country’s largest power distribution utility firm said it has been coordinating with all stakeholders to address concerns on power supply this summer when demand peaks.

Meralco utility economics head Lawrence Fernandez said the company relies on NGCP and DOE for information on the supply-demand situation. “For our part, as distributors, we prepare demand-side management programs like the ILP [Interruptible Load Program], to help prepare for the rise in demand during summer,” he said.

As of end-2021, there are 124 companies with an aggregate de-loading capability of 563 MW that were enrolled in the ILP of Meralco.

May is the month when demand typically peaks in the Meralco service area. From February to May, demand historically rises around 18 percent, Fernandez said.