The integrity of the surveys
CAn surveys be manipulated, tweaked or bought? Such a question, given the importance of surveys or political opinion polls in our electoral processes, needs to be brought out in open discussion and maybe later for serious consideration for the government to regulate or at least ensure the total integrity of a mechanism that apparently can dictate a country’s future.
Sometime early this year, I had a conversation with a friend who was part of a campaign team for a senatorial candidate. He said that he was approached by someone who offered information that can lead to influencing the conduct of such surveys. Based on what was told to him, political opinion polling companies, especially the reputable ones and not those with sketchy names that sprout only during elections, can stand on the integrity of their methodology and the reputation of those who conduct such surveys. The problem, however, lies with the third party pollsters who are the ones contracted by these reputable companies to do the actual face-to-face polling on ground. The offer made to my friend apparently by these third party contractors or those related to them, was leaking the information on the location where the survey will be conducted, a good two weeks before such an exercise will happen. With this advance information, one can seed that particular place with all the posters and other election paraphernalia as well as conduct sorties and other political activities to increase a candidate’s awareness and local constituent affinity in that area. Considering that there are more than 40,000 barangays in the country, such an information is invaluable. There were no follow up discussions after that. I am not even sure of the veracity of that story. From where I stand, such a proposal is one of the many incredulous money making schemes that sprout during an election period, similar to the many
In truth, surveys and opinion polls should only serve as a guide, nothing more. When it becomes clear that they become the main tool or weapon to shape people’s minds without the necessary check and balance, then the need to safeguard their integrity must then be in place.
stories on how the automated electoral machines can be tampered with beforehand to give undue advantage to a candidate, or the sudden appearances of many organizations with more than 10 million members that “offer” their support to the various candidates. But still, it is our responsibility—not just government’s—to ensure that opinion polls and surveys do not tread on the integrity of our electoral exercises.
In other countries, governments do recognize the significance of surveys and opinion polls, which has led to measures aimed to prevent its misuse. In France and other EU countries, publishing of poll results are disallowed for a certain period before their elections. A similar guideline is also observed in England with a need for the polling company to explain in detail their findings beyond just reporting it. And in Montenegro, there is a proposal to totally ban polling during their elections.
Moving on to our shores, several measures can be implemented, not for the present electoral exercise but for the next one. Some suggestions:
A need to have a self-regulating and policing industry association of polling companies, similar to the advertising industry, with their own set of standards and guidelines.
A need for polling companies to reveal their third party contracted pollsters and their credentials.
A need for academic institutions to provide the proper audit and ratings for such companies, and they should also come out with capacity building courses for the industry.
A need for a government body, maybe the Commission on Elections, to come out with clear guidelines on the usage of such surveys without curtailing on the freedom on information for the public but equally preventing the undue influence of surveys on the outcome of the electoral process as well.
For now, we can only rely on our good discernment on the validity of such surveys and opinion polls. In truth, surveys and opinion polls should only serve as a guide, nothing more. When it becomes clear that they become the main tool or weapon to shape people’s minds without the necessary check and balance, then the need to safeguard their integrity must then be in place.