What change? Dynasts rule PHL politics, educator warns
REAL change cannot be expected from voting dynasts into power, the dean of the Ateneo School of Government warned, ahead of the May 9 elections where expectations for gamechanging reforms are high. However, in a public social media post, Dean Ronald U. Mendoza said the data indicate that both the “fat” and “thin” political dynasties in the country have been thriving, and Monday’s elections may further entrench more of them.
According to Mendoza, voting for people with unknown or lesser known surnames could help bring the change that Filipinos have been waiting for for decades.
“Gusto natin ng pagbabago pero parami nang parami ang mga dynastiya sa gubyerno natin. Bakit kailangan ang Mayor at Congressman magkamag-anak? Bakit kailangan ng tig-dadalawang senador sa iisang pamilya? Humanap tayo ng bago para sa totoong pagbabago. #ibanaman,” Mendoza said in his post on Twitter and on Facebook.
[We want change but the dynasties in government service are increasing. Why should the mayor and congressman be relatives. Why should there be two senators in one family? Let’s look for new faces for real change.]
In his post on Facebook, Mendoza laid down the difference between fat and thin dynasties. The post-marcos era, he added, may have seen the rise of mini-dictatorships because of dynasties.
A thin dynasty is a political family seeing successive terms in office while a fat dynasty refers to several members of one family occupying various elective positions in the national and local political scene.
Based on election data, Mendoza estimated that fat dynasties have increased, particularly in local government units. He said 80 percent of governors; 67 percent of Congressmen; and 53 percent of Mayors belong to fat dynasties by 2019.
In 2004, only 57 percent of governors belonged to fat dynasties; 48 percent of Congressmen; and 40 percent of Mayors.
Pollsters in focus
MEANWHILE, with election campaigns ending this week, pollsters, pundits, and politicians are at the homestretch of a long campaign. In the view of a former government statistician, young Filipino voters will be the deciding factor in this year’s elections.
In a public social media post, former National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Secretary General Romulo A. Virola corrected what he deemed the underrepresentation of young voters in the Pulse Asia survey.
Virola said the data—when young voters are properly represented, given their numbers visà-vis the national demographic profile—could have Vice President
Leni Robredo winning the elections by a hairline at 40.4, percent compared to former Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at 39.6 percent. This, despite the huge margins consistently enjoyed by the latter in all major surveys. The latest Pulse Asia results disclosed on Monday had the former senator with a 54-percent voter preference versus Robredo’s 23.
In Virola’s view, “The biggest source of possible bias of the PA [Pulse Asia] survey in favor of Marcos is the underrepresentation of the young voters in the PA sample of respondents. And if this is corrected under certain assumptions, this alone will be sufficient to turn the tables around in favor of Leni [Robredo],” Virola added, “But this of course depends on the validity of the assumptions made.”
Virola added that the lead of Robredo over Marcos Jr. could widen if 60 percent of the vote count for those aged 18 to 41 years old would be in favor of Robredo.
The initial estimate, Virola said, only assumed that 55 percent of the votes among those aged 18 to 41 years old would be counted for Robredo.
“In addition to the weighting adjustment made because of the underrepresentation of young respondents in the PA sample, we are able to adjust also for the underrepresentation by educational attainment and by SEC [socioeconomic classification system] as well as adjust for the Don’t Know/refused votes, without d ouble counting, of course Unfortunately, we cannot do this due to data availability constraints,” Virola explained.
Virola said regardless of who wins in the upcoming elections, it is important that organizations such as Pulse Asia institute reforms in their polling.
These reforms, Virola said, should include survey designs and the “entire business process” of undertaking surveys. These, he said, are important to ensure the integrity of polling in the future.
He also said it is also important for pollsters, media, politicians, and the general public to accept that “election polls had gone wrong, and could go wrong for valid, understandable reasons. And it is about time politicians learned to accept defeat graciously.”