Post-election thoughts
Marcos is not Duterte and may need much political capital and popular support to get things accomplished. However, from the results from the LGUS, Marcos may have a stronger political base than any president since his father. Interesting times.
THERE must be something in the DNA of all earthly animals—from penguins to people—that requires that we look for connections. Maybe it is a survival mechanism.
Massive conspiracies surrounded the assassination of John F. Kennedy, including similarities with that of Abraham Lincoln. Both men were elected to the presidency in ’60s (Lincoln 1860, Kennedy 1960). Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808. Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
But it is intellectually interesting to look for parallels even if they are totally coincidental. There are some similar patterns with the 2016 US presidential election and the just concluded election in the Philippines.
Understand clearly and without any ambiguity or hesitation. The only similarity I see between the US and Filipino candidates is that the two contenders in both elections happened coincidentally to be a female (Robredo and Clinton) and a male (Marcos and Trump). If you believe otherwise or see something else, that is your perception, not mine.
However, there are some comparisons that can be made between US-2016 and Philippines-2022 regarding the campaigns.
Some things stand out. The political polarization common in both elections was unprecedented, at least in intensity. This is not unique to either the US or the Philippines. Elections around the globe are “door-die” with no attempt at trying to find a middle ground or consensus. And it is completely the politicians’/ candidates’ fault, not the people’s. They want us all wild-eyed and crazy for some reason.
Both elections’ campaign rhetoric was excessive. “Hillary Clinton said half of Donald Trump’s supporters belong in a “basket of deplorables” characterized by “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic” views.” Deplorable: shockingly bad, deserving contempt, despicable, reprehensible, and wretched.
Some local pundits applauded the use of the terms “wildflour elitists,” “bobotante,” and “bayaran” from supporters to describe the supporters of the other side. Not a good way to encourage consensus building, which is the only way a government can be effective.
Nonetheless, the election is completed. Now comes the “What happens next to the economy and the stock market?”
Financial firms like investment houses put out commentary labeled as “Research.” But those companies all have an agenda and want to make money trading the markets. “Thinktanks” are only slightly less agenda driven as they are paid by companies, which also trade the markets and appreciate any help from the “tanks” to get markets to move in a particular direction.
There is something different from those two and, perhaps strangely, is found in marketing. The Economist Intelligence Unit founded in 1946 and part of The Economist Group newspaper (1843) provides “Market intelligence”— like how many people in India are going to buy a new car in 2022—and an analysis of how to capitalize on that information.
This is their latest Viewpoint on the election: “Marcos is ideologically aligned with the incumbent president, and this suggests an agenda of continuity rather than change.”
“Marcos will not deviate substantially from his predecessor’s core stance in favor of market liberalization and hardline security policy for foreign policy. The ongoing rebalance towards the US will continue.” If you “liked” Duterte, you may probably also like Marcos.
“In concrete terms, this means that Mr. Marcos will continue to embrace the three key pillars of infrastructure upgrade, tax incentives for businesses, and the removal of investment barriers.”
“The biggest risk to Marcos’s presidency will be the execution of his policy agenda as Mr. Marcos can boast only of a relatively unproductive stint as a senator and remains closely associated with the record of his namesake father. Failure to adequately deliver progress on major business-friendly reform and infrastructure upgrade, which will require consummate political and communication skills, could jeopardize the country’s hitherto impressive recent growth trajectory.”
Marcos is not Duterte and may need much political capital and popular support to get things accomplished. However, from the results from the LGUS, Marcos may have a stronger political base than any president since his father. Interesting times.