BusinessMirror

What matters the most

- Dr. Alvin P. Ang EAGLE WATCH Dr. Alvin P. Ang is the Chairperso­n of the Department of Economics at Ateneo de Manila University. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Developmen­t.

THE Christmas season festivitie­s will soon die down, and people will go back to reality, as it were. Reality, for most people, is to face the challenges that were temporaril­y put on hold because of the holidays. In spite of what they are experienci­ng, most people would have said, “Pasko naman kasi.”

Neverthele­ss, that limit cannot be pushed further if they will continue to face rising prices of sugar and onions. People will get frustrated as they get back to work if they continue to be doing “diskarte” as Nicole Tengco beautifull­y explained in her Rappler Opinion article last Christmas Eve. We cannot continue to believe in the “diskarte” or the Filipino’s ability to doing life fixes in the daily grind.

So, there has to be a clear and formal strategy to properly address these challenges without having to push our people to do their own “diskarte”. This, indeed, is what matters the most to the majority. We should set aside grand dreams and plans that will take years before making a significan­t impact on our people’s lives. The priority ought to be clear: Government should address the issues of the daily grind, to the best that it can, no matter what.

The global headwinds that added to the rising prices of 2022 are most likely to dissipate by the first half of the coming new year. Three key events will change the course of the global gloom towards recession. First, there is the possible endemicity of Covid-19. Second, there is the reopening of the China economy. Third, there is potential peace in Ukraine. These three will shake the global economies and cause a global shift from gloom to optimism.

A World Health Organizati­on announceme­nt regarding the end of the pandemic could help reprioriti­ze resources towards lessening, or even totally removing, mobility and goods restrictio­ns. This will be boosted by China’s full reopening that could reignite global trade with its factories going back to produce for the world. This reopening will, in turn, address supply bottleneck­s and shortages to ultimately help lower supply-induced inflation. Moreover, recent pronouncem­ents of Russia seem to point to their willingnes­s to go to the negotiatin­g table. These three will certainly help “normalize” global trade, bring back the cost of production and shipment to comfortabl­e levels, and make commodity prices such as oil and food predictabl­e based on weather and capacities rather than speculatio­ns.

These events, if they do happen, will, in all likelihood, help soften prices, though not immediatel­y. They could also bring governance back into complacenc­y. We should not allow global events to dictate how we respond to our domestic needs and requiremen­ts. It should be noted that the Philippine­s would end the year with more than $8 billion in balance of payments (BOP) deficit due to the high volume of imports coupled with high costs of imported goods. Besides, interest rates will most probably remain high as the country adjusts from the global interest rates push.

These global and local economic conditions should be seen as impetus for governance to be taking a headway. Lower global prices do not mean they will remain the same. While we could benefit from it now, there should now be a recognitio­n that being connected to the global value chain must also mean that we are domestical­ly secured in terms of our food and basic necessitie­s— things that matter the most to our daily grind.

Yes, it will take some time before our trains and subways will run. There must be something that should be done so that people will not turn to buying more vehicles. It will take a coordinate­d system of public transporta­tion and traffic management that is incentive-based to be implemente­d, particular­ly in our major cities. For food and basic necessitie­s, there must be a local approach of having an inventory of what a city/ locality is able to produce, what they have, what they do not have, what they can sell, and what they need to buy. This simple tracking of resources and needs at the local level will put governance on their toes, regardless of what is happening in the global markets.

Hence, 2023 can be a good year for the country, regardless of the global conditions, if we just focus on what matters the most in the daily grind. First should be our localities, and then our cities, and then the nation. Let us work together to have a common “diskarte” and not leave that to every Juan in the street.

Praying that your 2023 will be better in health, finance, and governance!

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