The view in the mirror
ABout 8,000 years ago humans developed the mirror. no longer did people have to look at their reflection in a pool of water.
We watch videos of dogs, cats, and ducks go wild trying to figure out who is that “person” in the mirror. Intriguingly, Asian Elephants, Great Apes, and Bottlenose Dolphins have all passed the “mirror test” ability of reflected self-recognition.
Humans are able to pass the mirror test when they are around 18 months old. But as any aficionado of horror/thriller movies know, a mirror can also let us see what is behind us.
Getting your face near the mirror to observe that pimple on your forehead is good. But if you are pressed too close, that pimple can look like terminal skin cancer. Maybe more dangerous if too close to the mirror, you can’t see the manic with the axe creeping up from the shadows. It is not good to have a too narrow perspective.
The recent administration of President Aquino was periodically characterized in the local and foreign press as being a loyal and strong ally of all things Western, particularly the United States.
During the term of President Duterte, the Philippine government was focused more on domestic issues and on our regional backyard. In both instances (and even before), the Philippines was not viewed as much of a player on the international stage.
The last few months have seen President Marcos travelling extensively, perhaps to the impairment of domestic policies, to raise global awareness of the nation. That can be beneficial in both short and long term. We will see how these sorties play out.
However, if your mirror view is too limited by issues such as onions and eggs, you may miss seeing housing and health care. Further, the geopolitical and geoeconomic situations may be the most fragile in the past 30 years.
We prefer big bang events like the Covid lockdowns rather than slow processes, which we are now experiencing both with “World War Three” in Ukraine and the shattered global economic situation. But this is what is in the mirror.
The proxy war between the US and Russia will either go to a long war of attrition that both European and American citizens will wear out from in six, maybe 12 months, and will subsequently wind down. Or the WEF (White Elite Fanatics) warmongering military-industrial complex will go “full-stupid” and then, “God protect us all.”
Western interest rates will slowly continue to move higher until the Federal Reserve sees significant and systemic plummeting inf lation and/ or a severely weakening economy with higher unemployment. Then interest rates will effectively collapse, but not until the economic damage has been done. Note all the job creation the US government just bragged about were part-time, by people taking on two jobs to pay the super high inflationary bills.
There will be sovereign debt defaults in economies like Pakistan, Ghana, and Tunisia. But countries like the Philippines that have easily managed foreign debt will benefit from the falling rates. The local property sector will considerably benefit, especially in the middle to lower housing price range. The stock market will move much higher through 2023.
The crude oil market is counting on China coming back and demand for oil rising. Once peak interest rates are reached and economies start going down, oil demand will decrease, which is good for Philippine inflation.
Think of it like the cars on a roller coaster slowly going to the top of the hill and then come speeding down in a screaming mad dash. It is happening much faster than I expected with stock markets, gold, Bitcoin, even the Philippine peso booming higher since last October. But even as the Fed raises its effective rate (4.33 percent), the bond market is already projecting much lower rates with the US 10-year bond rate having peaked in October at 4.25 percent, now at 3.48 percent.
Remember, “Stay seated and keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle.”