The holy grail price

The term “Holy Grail” is loosely defined as something that people want and are looking for but may be extremely difficult to find or get. Finding a cure for cancer is the holy grail of medical researchers. Sustained nuclear fusion is the holy grail of the power industry. Assets also have a Holy Grail Price. BTC has had a $100,000 HGP since it began its giant move higher in 2020.

IN virtually every nation on earth—except in those countries where Islam is the official religion—it is “politically incorrect” and maybe against the law to make fun in any way, shape, or form of a person for the following characteristics. These include religion, race, nd skin color (even unrelated to race), ethnic group, country of birth, weight, height, education, intellect, speech patterns, opinions, politics, marital status, sex, gender, physical disability, and occupation among others.

Further, while not necessarily deemed politically incorrect, particularly in the Western countries, saying or writing something that might “hurt” another person’s “feelings,” “damage” their self-esteem, or “offend” them is also unacceptable. I put those words in quotation marks because like “truth” and “evil” in 2024, there is no standard definition. Everyone makes the rules up as they go along to suit their own needs.

However, individuals who are near-fanatics that everyone must adopt and believe in the future of cryptocurrencies—embodied by Bitcoin—are not a protected group yet.

I was told this past week that the price of Bitcoin will be “100K by October. Send it.” I will assume that means one BTC will trade for US$100,000 by October 2024. Here is some perspective.

February 18, 2024: “Robert Kiyosaki expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by June this year.” March 25, 2024: “Robert Kiyosaki Predicts Bitcoin Hitting $100K by September.”

January 27, 2021: “Parabolic price movement’s last leg may send it (Bitcoin) to $100,000 by September 2021.” September 1, 2021: “Back in December, Charles Edwards, creator of Hash Ribbons, set a Bitcoin price target of between $100,000 to $200,000 for the end of 2021.” September 8, 2021: “In a new report by Standard Chartered’s cryptocurrency research unit, Bitcoin is predicted to hit $100,000 “in late 2021 or early 2022.” October 13, 2021: “Bitcoin could reach $100k as early as 2023, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro says.”

January 5, 2022: “Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV in December that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in 2022.” April 14, 2022: “Bitcoin could hit $100,000 within a year, Antoni Trenchev, CEO of crypto lending firm Nexo.”

I have no doubt the BTC could trade at $100,000 by October 2024, or by October any other year. That is not the point.

The term “Holy Grail” is loosely defined as something that people want and are looking for but may be extremely difficult to find or get. Finding a cure for cancer is the holy grail of medical researchers. Sustained nuclear fusion is the holy grail of the power industry. Assets also have a Holy Grail Price. BTC has had a $100,000 HGP since it began its giant move higher in 2020.

The HGP for gold has been $3,000 per ounce for 20 years. For Brent crude oil it is $125 per barrel. We have been talking about a PHP to USD exchange rate of 60 to 1 since 2005. I remember well the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average first hit 1,000—after seven decades—in November 1972 and then again in 1982 when the index finally broke and held 1,000.

For the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index, the HGP is 8,000 with now a little HGP at 7,000.

But any and all of the HGPS, even for Bitcoin, is not some magic number that is just going to happen. Some specific series of events must take place that has nothing to do with hope and prayer or even interest rates/inflation. The only way the HGPS will be reached is if and when someone—many someones—is willing to buy at that price.

Bitcoiners. You want BTC at $100,000? Simple and easy. All you have to do is buy my one BTC for $100,000 and your HGP will have been reached. What’s stopping you?

The market, actually buyers, determines the price of everything. And as much as you love BTC, you are not willing to pay $100,000, at least not yet. You want to wait for those someones to buy at $100,000 so that you then have the option to sell to them at that price. The same is true for all of the other assets I mentioned and their HGP.

Pick an issue on the PSE and the price that you would like to see that stock trade at, and I can tell you—for a fee of course—how much buying has to be made to reach that price. The PSE is relatively easy because it is a small market unlike for oil, gold, and certainly cryptocurrencies.

Prices go higher only because buyers are willing to purchase at a higher price. Only when they are willing to buy at the Holy Grail Price will the HGP be reached. Your feelings and desires do not matter.