ML douses armed strife

The incidence and the human costs of conflict plunged in 2018 in all provinces and in almost all cases

The biggest benefit from the two-year martial law in Mindanao was the significant reduction in armed conflicts and deaths in the region that resulted from it, according to the latest study of independent peacebuilding organization Conflict Alert Philippines.

“What happened in the Bangsamoro from 2017 to 2018 is probably the closest we can get to an overnight leap from war and uncertainty to peace and security in the region,” the report noted.

“From all accounts, the incidence and the human costs of conflict plunged in 2018 in

provinces and in almost all cases,” according to the study.

President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law in Mindanao following attacks launched by the Islamic State-inspired Maute Group in Marawi City in 2017.

Improvement across-the-board

The report, funded by the World Bank and the Australian government through its Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, tracked down political violence, identity-based conflict and crime-related violence particularly in Muslim Mindanao. All such showed a decline in almost all provinces.

What happened in the Bangsamoro from 2017 to 2018 is probably the closest we can get to an overnight leap from war and uncertainty to peace and security.

“The Conflict Alert 2019 report shows how violent conflict began to go down in 2017 despite the war in Marawi, but nowhere as dramatic as the nosedive in 2018,” it found.

The study added there has been a decline in conflict deaths partly due to the drop in coordinated attacks and lesser use of explosives in 2018 compared to two years earlier.

“The remarkable shift in the conflict situation certainly brings a more conducive environment for development to take place and for a lasting peace to be embedded in what has often been described as the most dangerous place in the country,” the 81-page report added.

More BARMM elbow room

“More importantly, the situation buys time for the newly established Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) to strengthen its legitimacy and institutionalize the sort of reforms that can be felt immediately by the local population” it added.

Conflict Alert Philippines was able to monitor 2,910 violent conflicts across Muslim Mindanao in 2018, which is a 30 percent drop from 4,140 incidents in 2017 and 33 percent lower compared to 4,363 incidents in 2016.

“The imposition of martial law contributed significantly to the decline in conflict incidents and conflict deaths in 2017 and 2018,” the report says. “Martial law was imposed due to the eruption of war in Marawi but its positive effects on peace and security were felt across the region, reproducing the order and stability needed ahead of the major political battles in 2018 and beyond.”

Visibiity a deterrence

The report referred to the government’s decision to limit military rule within the southern region.

Nowhere has the impact of martial law been as strategic and decisive as in Muslim Mindanao.

“Increased police visibility coupled with the expansion in the number of military checkpoints have made it extremely difficult for people to carry their firearms in public and to engage in gun battles across the region, especially in urban areas like Cotabato, Isabela and Marawi cities, and urban areas adjacent to the Bangsamoro, such as the cities of Iligan, Zamboanga, Kidapawan and General Santos,” the report noted.

Fragile peace exists

it added that reduced incidences and costs of violent conflict have “brought about a fragile peace in the Bangsamoro, which has created conducive conditions for development planning and action in the short term.”

“The possibilities for state-building created by the new security environment buy ample time for the BARMM and the transition authority to undertake immediate and doable reforms in the economic and political infrastructure of the region,” the report averred.

It added that unless a political settlement is reached regarding loose firearms, “the withdrawal of the huge military presence in the region may destroy the fragile peace and reverse the gains of the past two years.”