Shrewd tactician

Not only are the detractors of President Rody Duterte miserably failing in the international effort to destabilize his administration but, similar to the futile domestic effort to demonize him that only further propelled his survey ratings, global recognition is now pouring on the President.

Regional publication Asia Times bluntly put it in a report, “Duterte is a gift to the Philippines,” which was written after his successful five-day official visit to China where he was able to negotiate Xi’s commitment to push the early conclusion of the Code of Conduct that will be ready before he steps down in 2022. The code will bind all claimants of the West Philippine Sea to abide by rules in the settling of disputes.

Singapore analyst Maa Zhi Hong noted that Rody who is at the halfway point of his presidency “has made huge waves domestically and internationally for his tough talk and policies since coming to power in 2016.”

“He is one of the most popular presidents in the history of his country. And the main reason behind his vast domestic support is his ability to fulfill the overwhelming desire among ordinary Filipinos for strong leadership to solve the myriad problems that plagued the nation for years prior to his election,” Maa said.

The Asian policies expert said the country suffered from weak political leadership and persistent massive poverty despite strong economic growth.

The poverty directly fueled the drug menace as many poor Filipinos smoked shabu or crystal methamphetamine to keep themselves from feeling hungry, Maa noted.

He added that many were pushed into the drug trade to make a living, “and this caused the country to be in the deep grip of a drug crisis that required a multifaceted solution.”

In an apparent dig to the claim of political opponents that the war on drugs was not a solution, Maa had this to say: “Whether Duterte has succeeded in solving these problems are another matter altogether. What matters is that he is seen to be doing something about them.”

The Asia Times report further noted that one gift Duterte has endowed on his country that many Filipinos have yet to appreciate fully “is his decision to realign the country away from the United States toward China.”

“It is a shrewd move on his part, as China has risen, and it is important for the Philippines to be nimble and stay ahead of the game as it adjusts to the new power dynamic within the region.”

He explained that with a rising China that has become more assertive in defending and advancing its interests, “the Philippines’ previous policy of allying itself with the United States for its security is neither wise nor sustainable.”

Had Rody pursued the complete reliance on the United States, which was the path taken by his predecessor Noynoy Aquino, the Philippines may now be deep in a crisis.

The United States under President Donald Trump has proved itself to be an unreliable partner, Maa indicated. “The US has walked away from international treaties like the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Iran nuclear deal. It has repeatedly demanded, and succeeded on occasions, that allies like Japan and South Korea pay more for keeping US troops in their countries.”

Trump has repeatedly slammed American allies and said the US had incurred a huge cost protecting them and got nothing in return. He has persistently shown a dangerous ignorance of the historical and strategic values that allies in Europe, Asia and elsewhere provide to the United States.

Further, Maa explained the Trump administration has shown less inclination than previous administrations to uphold the US-based international order that was established in the aftermath of World War II.

Instead, the US under Trump has worked actively to undermine many of the institutions it built, such as the World Trade Organization by blocking the appointments of new judges, which has in essence caused the organization to grind to a halt.

“This is the very rule-based order that countries like the Philippines depend upon to survive and prosper,” he said.

On the move of Noynoy to settle the sea dispute by referring it to the arbitral tribunal in The Hague in which the court eventually ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016, but the ruling has been in essence ignored by China to no consequence, Maa noted defects in the process that should be blamed on the US.

“The hard truth is that the US-built rule-based international order prior to 2016 was defective and not having its intended effects. The reason is very simple, as the United States sets a bad precedent by refusing to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” he said.

The UN agreement in essence lists a set of international laws governing the passage of ships through international waters and respecting the rights of countries’ territorial waters.

Nonetheless, Maa said the United States refused to bind itself to the convention and “yet it demands that other countries adhere to international laws. This bad precedent gave China the excuse it needed not to follow the convention, as it also wished to ignore international norms and rules to its convenience without facing real consequences.”

In summary he quoted Thucydides as saying, “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

The accurate reading of Rody, as a result of his political instinct built through the years as a Davao City mayor, spared the country from the backlash of the worsening rivalry in the region between the two superpowers.

“Rody, as a result of his political instinct built through the years as a Davao City mayor, spared the country from the backlash of the worsening rivalry in the region between the two superpowers.

“One gift Duterte has endowed on his country that many Filipinos have yet to appreciate fully is his decision to realign the country away from the United States toward China.