Swine output sees decline

Local hog production will drop by 20 percent to 1.27 million metric tons this year as the deadly African swine fever (ASF) in Luzon and some parts of Mindanao continues to threaten the P260 billion swine industry. In its latest report, the United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA-FAS) revised its initial forecast of 15 percent decline as the strict virus lockdown upends movements of goods. Based on third-quarter data, there is also a projected decline of around 20 to 30 percent in total numbers and a significant drop in sows, indicating that the supply problem may persist until next year despite some hog producers reporting the start of repopulation efforts. Thus, the country’s production recovery in 2021 is likely to be gradual and not reach 2019 levels, as parts of the country continue to deal with the challenges of ASF. Meanwhile, farm gates prices of hogs reached P170 per kilogram in some Luzon provinces in July and August, but have since come down. “Above average prices are encouraging producers to sell old sows and smaller hogs, which may further contribute to the contraction of pork production this year and slower recovery in 2021,” the report read.