Numbers’ decline merely reporting backlog, says expert

An infectious disease expert said the decline in the average number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases are mostly backlogs not based on new infections identified.

Dr. Benjamin Co pointed out that the Department of Health (DoH) has still been reporting cases dating back to March despite being months well into the pandemic

Looking into the more specific data, Co stated the Philippines has been seeing a more manageable number of positive cases each week especially in Metro Manila — the epicenter of the contagion in the country, but only because the curve had been very slow in movement.

“The total number of cases have not been actually declining, we’ve plateaued at 2,500. But if you look at the local data around 30 percent of them are not within the 14-day period or otherwise would be called recent data,” he said on a late Monday night.

“The only reason why the numbers look like there’s still a lot, it’s because we still have a lot of backlog,” he added.

Co noted that out of the over 2,000 reported cases, only around 500 are new while 700 others are data still coming from the period of July to September which gives a good indication that dense areas such as Metro Manila are managing.

The only reason why the numbers look like there’s still a lot, it’s because we still have a lot of backlog.

This is why he said it is more advisable to extend the general community quarantine in the metropolis until the end of this year in order to achieve more manageable numbers compared to earlier months.

“We’ve lived with this already, what’s a few more months than wasting the last seven months? That’s my point,” he said.

Earlier, the OCTA research team has already noted that provinces in Mindanao such as Butuan, General Santos, Cotabato City, Marawi, and Cagayan de Oro are in need of assistance in scaling up their testing capacity.