Two steps ahead
President Rodrigo Duterte’s independent foreign policy, which was maligned by his detractors and termed as the China pivot, is now the likely default engagement of countries in the region for the imminent Joe Biden administration in the United States.
At the start of his term, Mr. Duterte already laid out his strategy to befriend China and other non-traditional partners to widen the scope of trade and diplomacy for the nation, while setting aside contentious issues such as the maritime conflict, which he said will be addressed in due time.
The yellow critics, however, termed it as part of the retreat from the favorable ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which invalidated the nine-dash line claim of China over the West Philippine Sea.
The decision also reaffirmed the Philippines’ EEZ (exclusive economic zone) and continental shelf claims and that no above-high-tide feature in the disputed territory was entitled to an EEZ or a continental shelf, removing any alternative basis to China’s claims.
China, however, did not participate in the proceeding since it does not recognize third party intervention in a dispute, which it strongly maintained should be settled among countries involved in it.
As was his promise, Mr. Duterte is now raising the issue through honorable engagements with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
Mark Valencia, a respected maritime policy analyst based in Australia, said even critics are now “singing a different tune. This is because they now recognize Mr. Duterte’s strategy may be on the verge of success.”
For four years, former Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio “and others like President Noynoy Aquino’s Foreign Minister Alberto del Rosario have vented at President Rodrigo Duterte for what they considered his accommodation of Beijing’s ‘aggression’ in the South China Sea by failing immediately to implement an arbitration victory against China.”
A campaign was then launched “that severely criticized him and his China policy and called on him to confront China regardless of the consequences – including the potential damage to the Philippine economy and its people.”
According to the expert, Duterte had a different, larger and longer-term view. “He foresaw the dire consequences of immediately pressing the issue and decided that the real costs to the Philippines and its people would far outweigh the more theoretical benefits of national pride.”
Valencia read Mr. Duterte’s approach as “driven in part by his determination not to be bound by the cultural, ideological and foreign-policy shackles of America’s neocolonialism.”
He also wanted to make a decision that he thought was in the best interests of the Filipino poor who could not endure much more economic hardship that would almost certainly result from confronting China, according to Valencia.
He also shared the view of the Chief Executive that the arbitration panel’s ruling is now part of international law and is not likely to change easily or quickly.
“So, he and his like-minded supporters saw the situation as requiring deft hedging and the art of delay until a time more ripe for a peaceful mutually beneficial resolution of the issue,” he added.
Regional publication Asean Post also wrote in a commentary that “on the part of the Philippines, the best way forward (under the Biden administration) is to continue to pursue an independent foreign policy beyond Duterte’s term while ensuring national interests are given primordial considerations above all other foreign interests”.
“In dealing with the SCS (South China Sea) dispute, the Philippines should not treat its relations with China and other claimant-states as a zero-sum game,” the newspaper added.
It encouraged the Philippines together with other claimant countries to “pursue a peaceful resolution of the dispute through bilateral relations and multilateralism within the ambit of ASEAN mechanisms like the ‘Code of Conduct (COC).’”
“This is by far the most pragmatic and viable approach to easing of tensions over the disputed waters,” it added, referring to the agreement led by China and the ASEAN. “Confrontation on issues surrounding the disputed waters surely is self-defeating,” it concluded.
Consider President Rodrigo Duterte knowing what to do from Day One of his administration and went on with it as a policy direction despite the brickbats thrown at him.
He instead accepted the challenge to reverse the nearly irreparable damage caused by the previous yellow President on the country’s relations with a neighbor.
“
He instead accepted the challenge to reverse the nearly irreparable damage caused by the previous yellow President on the country’s relations with a neighbor.
“
As was his promise, Mr. Duterte is now raising the issue through honorable engagements with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.