Dire warning vs MGCQ
Metro Covid cases may reach 2,400 daily, says Octa
David said aside from Pasay City, Covid cases are also increasing in Navotas City and Malabon City
The Octa Research Group on Saturday warned that cases in Metro Manila could reach 2,400 per day from the current 400 daily, similar to the situation in August 2020 if the implementation of modified general community quarantine (MGCQ) pushes through in March. In a radio interview, Octa Research Group fellow Dr. Guido David maintained that it is still premature to shift from the current general community quarantine (GCQ) to MGCQ.
“While we know there is a delay in the rollout of the vaccines and the businessmen are suffering, what should be done is to fast track the vaccination program because that is the most
important factor if you want to gain the confidence of the public,” he said.
David pointed out that the people are still afraid to go out because of the risk they may acquire the coronavirus disease (Covid-19).
He added that based on the simulation conducted by Octa if MGCQ is declared in the National Capital Region (NCR), in 36 days, Covid cases will increase to 2,400 from the current 400 cases per day.
“Based on our simulation, if Metro Manila will be affected by the variant, just like what is happening now in Cebu, it will just take 36 days for us to return to the situation in August, where we are averaging 2,400 cases a day because at present we are only at 400 cases per day,” David added.
Alarming increase
According to David, there is also an alarming increase in the Covid cases in some areas in Metro Manila, particularly in Pasay City where the cases doubled in just one week, from 23 cases to 44 cases per day.
“We are putting ourselves at risk that surges will happen. We prefer to have it calibrated, the easing of our restrictions,” he stressed.
David said aside from Pasay City, Covid cases are also increasing in Navotas City and Malabon City.
“One reason why we are hesitant to the plan is we already have this variant of concern in Cebu area. Cases are increasing in Cebu, Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu. In fact, the hospital capacities in Lapu-Lapu are almost full,” David noted.
He added that the authorities have yet to determine if the sudden surge in Pasay City is also because of the new Covid variant.
“The cases in Pasay City doubled compared from last week. In fact, the attack rate is now at seven which means, the city is now at high risk. It is possible this may because of clustering of cases. We are not saying there is now affected by the variant but we are closely monitoring the cases in the city,” David explained.
David said the Octa Research Group is alarmed by the abrupt increase in the cases in Pasay City as cases in Metro Manila are stable since October 2020.
“While cases in Metro Manila are not declining, Covid cases are stable since October 2020, cases are not increasing and not decreasing,” he said.
He said that based on the guidelines from the World Health Organization (WHO), an MGCQ status can only be implemented if there is a downward trend of Covid cases for the last two weeks.
David pointed out that the people are still afraid to go out because of the risk they may acquire the coronavirus disease.
“Almost 100 percent of the burden or the responsibility lies with the local government so we should give the LGU ample time to prepare before we implement an MGCQ in the entire country,” according to David.
Strict observance
At the same time, David said that the public should strictly observe the minimum health standard once President Rodrigo Duterte orders the MGCQ nationwide.
“It is our personal responsibility to wear mask, face shield, observe physical distancing since even with the easing of the quarantine, the virus is still there, the threat is still there. We should double our efforts to protect ourselves against the virus,” he said.
David stressed that Octa Research Group is not against the implementation of the MGCQ but maintained it should be done gradually.
“We submitted our recommendation, particularly to the IATF. We are not against it but rather the timing is important. We should balance the risk factors and the economy,” he stated.
Duterte is expected to decide on Monday whether to approve the recommendation of the economic team to finally implement an MGCQ in the country starting 1 March.
Lower age limits
Meanwhile, Metro Manila mayors are looking into the possibility of lowering quarantine age restrictions from 18 years old to 15.
“Metro manila mayors are open to the proposal of allowing 15 to 56 years old to leave their homes as we slowly and gradually open up the economy,” Michael Salalima, chief of staff of the Office of the general manager of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, said on
Saturday.
Currently, only individuals aged 18 to 65 years old are authorized to go out due to the threat of Covid-19.
Salalima disclosed that since local chief executives have already agreed to shift to MGCQ, they are already finalizing the rules and regulations to be implemented during the most lenient quarantine status.
“There should be a balance between the economy and health amid the pandemic. We can no longer endure imposing a stricter (quarantine classification). With our present number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila, they are looking at how to ease the restrictions and keep infection rates low,” he said.
“We are addressing the appeal of our economic team that the economy is really suffering,” he added.
They are also reconsidering the reopening of cinemas and other select establishments like driving schools, video and interactive game arcades, libraries, museums and cultural centers.
“There is a proposal to prohibit eating and impose guidelines on the ventilation requirements inside the cinemas,” Salalima bared, noting that these are yet to be finalized.