Economic team weighs MGCQ against virus cases
We believe that the reopening being proposed, coupled with continuing health measures such as masking, testing and tracing, balances the need to protect both lives and livelihood
Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said the economic team and the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on Emerging Infectious Diseases are set to observe the coronavirus diseases cases in the National Capital Region (NCR), following a reported surge of infections cases in Metro Manila based on the study of independent research group OCTA.
He disclosed this even as one business group and private economists expressed support to the proposed easing of quarantine restrictions next month which aims to allow more businesses to operate.
In an interview, the Trade chief said before reaching a decision to de-escalate from the current general community quarantine to a looser modified GCQ, the IATF and the economic team, composed of the Department of Trade and Industry, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the Department of Finance, “will discern” the current numbers of the deadly virus.
On Sunday, the OCTA research group said NCR has once again recorded an upward trend in Covid-19 cases, noting that the daily average new cases in Metro Manila over the past three days have climbed to 563, up by 45 percent from the daily average of 388 recorded last week.
The region’s reproduction number also grew to 1.22 from the 1.00 listed two weeks ago.
“The positivity rate in NCR — or the percentage of those infected out of all tested, has meanwhile breached 5 percent over the past week. This is based on around 16,000 RT-PCR tests conducted daily,” according to OCTA, adding that the last time the region exceeded 5 percent was November 2020.
With this, Lopez expressed that in order to avoid the surge, he still pushes granular and localized lockdowns.
“We observe. We should continue to do granular and localized lockdown. Where necessary. (But) not the entire area,” Lopez told the Daily Tribune when asked whether the latest OCTA research results will affect the economic team’s proposal for the country’s economic recovery.
Lopez has been saying that it’s about time to shift to modified general community quarantine (MGCQ), given that there has been no recorded surge in Covid-19 cases since the gradual reopening of the economy last year.
On the other hand, the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (FINEX) along with other private economists backed a transition to MGCQ to further reboot the economy.
“We have seen how our countrymen have suffered from the devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Philippine economy, with increased levels of poverty and hunger,” FINEX said in a statement.
“We believe that the reopening being proposed, coupled with continuing health measures such as masking, testing, and tracing, balances the need to protect both lives and livelihood,” it added.
According to FINEX, local government units must adopt a standardized health protocol system to allow greater mobility of people and goods.
The business group likewise called for the timely passage of the proposed economic stimulus bills, which are necessary for aiding the country’s economic recovery plan.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said that further opening could be justified, provided that social distancing measures along with minimum health standards will be observed carefully.
“Many other ASEAN economies have been almost business as usual alongside with their public transport system, or some of them have never locked down after learning from their experience in handling SARS and bird flu over the past 10 to 20 years,” Ricafort explained in a text message.
“Further reopening of the economy would have a more sustainable solution to the economic challenges... in terms of the increased capacity of many industries, leading to increased production, sales, earnings (and) more jobs for both formal and the informal economy,” he added.
Robert Dan Roces, chief economist at the Security Bank Corp. said that “calibrations” in the transportation and demand-side factors must be imposed, recognizing the easing move as a “tough balancing act” for the government.
“Essentially, better mobility. Transport could be wider (in terms) of allowed capacity. (On the) demand side, NEDA has said already that if kids are allowed then consumption could improve,” Roces said.
The proposal, while it will help pick up the slumped labor market, as expected, was also met with some reservations.
At the ING bank, senior economist Nicholas Mapa laid reservations about the call to shift to a much looser MGCQ, listing factors such as the slumped labor market.
We observe. We should continue to do granular and localized lockdown.
“Authorities are of the impression that removal or relaxing of movement restrictions would automatically catapult consumption close to or back to pre-Covid-19 levels and that this would be the remedy to repair consumer sentiment,” Mapa explained.
“We however (have) some reservations to this outlook given the fact that the labor market looks nothing like it did prior to the pandemic,” he added.
According to him, consumer confidence runs on a similar trend, registering in deep red as measured by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ consumer expectations index.
“Meanwhile, Filipinos remain wary of catching Covid-19, all the more with cases facing a slight uptick recently while new variants pop up left and right. Add to that, the Philippines has yet to provide the vaccines that will be the true answer to showing consumer confidence,” he said.
“With no vaccines on the way and the job market in tatters, consumption will be hard pressed to replicate pre-Covid-19 form no matter how many restrictions we relax,” he concluded.
Lopez, however, assured that every aspect will be looked into to attain a good balance between boosting the economy while still ensuring the public’s health and safety.
“(For) every proposal we made, we included the health experts in making decisions. That’s why we are considering the numbers of the Covid-19 cases, whether there are spikes or not. But the reason why they are coming up with this kind of proposal is that there are positive findings that despite reopening the economy, Covid cases are downsizing. We are balancing hunger, malnutrition and stunted growth of children due to the continued plummeting of our economy,” said Lopez, noting that 1.6 Million Filipinos are still jobless.
“Again, we are not telling you that we will allow all citizens to go out. That’s why it is granular, and our team, IATF is along with the Department of Health and other health experts in proposing this to the President,” the Trade chief maintained.