Metro repro rate up 1.08

OCTA flags Makati, Manila for surge, but DoH says NCR is still under the low-risk classification

The OCTA Research Group on Wednesday said the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to 1.08, attributing it to surges in Manila and Makati.

From 14 to 20 July, the average number of new daily Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila increased to 744 per day, from 629 per day between the period of 13 to 19 July, the group warned.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people who can get infected by the virus from a Covid-19 patient. A person infected with the deadly Delta variant, however, may have a reproduction rate of as high as 5 to 8, meaning one person may infect up to eight individuals in one go.

Metro Manila has logged an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 5.39 cases per 100,000 population, intensive care unit (ICU) utilization of 42 percent, and a positivity rate of six percent.

OCTA said the NCR is now under the moderate-risk classification, flagging the cities of Manila and Makati for the significant increase in new daily cases. The city of Manila reported a total of 109 cases compared to 82 cases recorded two weeks ago, while Makati City cases rose to 74 cases from 55 cases in the same period.

The statement came a day after the Department of Health (DoH) said Metro Manila is still under the low-risk classification.

Meanwhile, the research group also flagged Davao City, Cebu City, Iloilo City, Bacolod, Makati City, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, Baguio, Taguig, Laoag, Mariveles as high-risk areas.

Three areas were flagged for their “high” ICU utilization rate such as Davao City with a 91 percent ICU utilization rate, Iloilo City with 99 percent and Taguig City with 92 percent.

The ADAR in Laoag and Mariveles also increased at 47.87 and 28.53, respectively.

Overall, the country’s reproduction number stood at 0.98 while the ICU utilization rate was at 54 percent with a positivity rate of 11 percent.

The DoH reported that of the 35 cases of Delta variant in the country, eight remained active, while three have resulted in deaths.