Is variant spike for real?

The Department of Health (DoH) on Wednesday is disputing claims of a surge in cases of the Covid-19’s Delta variant just as the private OCTA Research group is calling for a two-week “circuit-breaker” lockdown.

“Officially” on a surge was how OCTA described the cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) as it suggested a strong lockdown similar to the enhanced community quarantine imposed

last March where an economic movement was allowed unlike during the first ECQ in March 2020.

“While we are still awaiting scientific confirmation, OCTA believes the more contagious Delta variant may be driving this surge,” OCTA Research fellow Professor Guido David said in a virtual media briefing.

Back in March, the group recommended a circuit-breaker lockdown wherein people would observe “voluntary enhanced community quarantine” and for workplaces to implement a “significant work from home strategy”.

The group said circuitbreaker lockdowns are the measures implemented in Australia and New Zealand to avert the Delta surge.

He said that as of 28 July, the reproduction rate in the NCR is at 1.33 and is expected to spike if the government will not act immediately.

“We are now having 1,000 cases per day. It will be doubled to 2,000 or more by August,” he said.

“If we implement an early circuit-breaker on 1 August. The cases will be controlled almost immediately because we are still starting at a relatively low number,” he added. The infectious disease expert explained that the circuitbreaker lockdown will lessen the daily average cases from 1,000 to 600.

In the same media briefing, Molecular biologist-priest Nicanor Austriaco, also an OCTA fellow, said the two-week circuit-breaker lockdown will limit mobility, thus not “feed” the virus.

This, he said, will give way for the government to conduct an intensive contact tracing and isolate Covid-19 patients to break the chains of transmission.

A circuit-breaker lockdown would also accelerate the vaccination program to achieve the 30 percent “Delta resilience” in Metro Manila.

The possibility of hospitals getting overwhelmed with cases was also raised.

“The hospital occupancy in the NCR will reach 70 percent health care utilization rate and the explosive nature of the surge will reach maximum for the healthcare by the end of August,” Austriaco said.

“Once a Delta-driven surge begins, it accelerates in an explosive fashion,” he added.

The DoH, however, said there is no “definite evidence” of a surge of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila.

On Tuesday night, the DoH urged “independent expert groups” to be more careful with using the word “surge” as it may cause more panic and fear to the public.

Yet, the 17 Metro Manila mayors comprising the Metro Manila Council of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) vowed to take an aggressive stance against the Delta variant.

MMDA chair Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos Jr. disclosed that the group is looking at the OCTA report for guidance.

“We have been doing precautionary measures and the necessary plans to handle the said variant and in fact, the mayors have been clustering and isolating those infected with the help of the Department of Health,” Abalos said.

These LGU have recommended to the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) the suspension of an earlier clearance for children as young as five to be allowed outside their homes.

The mayors also changed that curfew hours be reinstated to 10 p.m. to 4 a.m.

“The mayors are very active and even impose granular lockdowns when they monitor an increase in infections and there are already four to five LGU that have adopted the measure,” Abalos said.

The Philippines on Wednesday reported additional 4,478 infections, bringing the country’s total caseload to 1,566,667.

The DoH case bulletin said the new cases pushed the active cases to 3.5 percent or a total of 54,552.

Of these numbers, 93.4 percent is mild, 1.2 percent asymptomatic, 2.3 percent severe, and 1.4 percent in critical condition.

The total number of recoveries rose to 1,484,714 after 6,149 more patients recovered from the dreaded virus.

Meanwhile, the death toll increased to 27,401 after 84 new fatalities were recorded.

The DoH noted that four laboratories failed to submit data on time, 213 duplicates were removed from the total case count. Of these, seven are recoveries and one is death.

“Moreover, 53 cases that were previously tagged as recoveries were reclassified as deaths after final validation,” it added.

The DoH said the low number of cases reported today was due to the 9 p.m. extraction done the day prior, not the usual 1 p.m.

“Because of that, there were some cases reported yesterday that should have been included in the case counts today (Wednesday),” it added.