Biz groups favor lockdown
Concepcion expressed full support should the government push for a two-week lockdown similar to the NCR Plus Bubble last March
Two of the country’s biggest business groups on Wednesday agreed to a possible third declaration of a hard lockdown to arrest the threat of a Covid-19 Delta variant spread, but asked the government for a lead time to avert an economic shock.
A preparation, they said, is needed to protect the anticipated fourth quarter gains expected from Christmas and pre-election spending that a so-called “circuit breaker” may scuttle.
The lockdown was proposed by the private OCTA Research Group that said it is needed to slow down the more transmissible Delta variant in the National Capital Region (NCR).
Octa Research fellow Ranjit Rye proposed a two-week lockdown, claiming that virus epicenter Metro Manila is “officially in a surge due to the rise in the reproduction number (R) from 0.6 last month to 1.33.
The proposal is coming at a time when the Philippines has recorded 4,478 Covid-19 infections on Wednesday that brought the country’s total caseload to 1,566,667 and pushed the active cases to 3.5 percent of a total of 54,552.
There were 84 deaths, too, that brought the death toll to 24, 401.
Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion at the Pandesal Forum also on Wednesday, emphasized that it is the best time to impose the circuit breaker lockdown.
He cited the people’s fear of the Delta strain made them hesitant in going out again.
Concepcion also noted that most restaurant operations are now back to 20 percent maximum capacity.
“I think this is the best time. If you look at the current limitations under this GCQ (general community quarantine) with heightened restrictions, restaurants are only allowed to operate with 20 percent capacity plus 10 percent capacity if they have a Safety Seal,” Concepcion said.
“So, at that level and now with the Delta variant, there are a lot of fears for people to go out. Plus, with the kind of weather we have right now. The restaurant group said the rain is not helping our businesses, agreeing that this is the right time for the lockdown,” he added.
Concepcion expressed full support should the government push for a two-week lockdown similar to the NCR Plus Bubble last March.
The first lockdown — named as enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), was placed nationwide in March last year.
“We prefer that we solve the problem early and not wait for the problem to get bigger because then we will have a lockdown for months. That is the most catastrophic thing in our country if that happens in the fourth quarter. If we have to do it, let us do it. Let us prepare for it. We have to be decisive. We have to move quickly,” he stressed.
Also, he explained that August is the best time for a strict two-week lockdown to contain the Delta variant since it is a weak time for the economy due to non-stop rainy days. August, in ancient Chinese belief, is the “Ghost Month” when business deals are avoided.
Concepcion, however, highlighted the importance of the fourth quarter to the business sector.
“It is a most important quarter of the year. This is where consumers spend (for) Christmas. Election spending will also come. Most businesses who (have) lost their income from the previous months will be able to recover,” he added.
According to the OCTA research, the projection based on the behavior of the Delta variant among the Philippines’ ASEAN neighbors suggests that the surge will begin to impact the healthcare system in NCR by mid-August. Hospitals would be overwhelmed by the end of that month.
“No ASEAN country has reversed the surge without locking down major cities. The longer we wait, the harder we can reverse the surge,” OCTA said.
Recently, Concepcion even proposed to the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) to adopt bolder moves to counter the variant’s spread. It includes restricting the unvaccinated population from certain establishments or from moving around the country.
If we have to do it, let us do it. Let us prepare for it. We have to be decisive. We have to move quickly.
Also proposed were incentives to businesses that target full vaccination of their employees such as increased operational capacity. Fully vaccinated individuals can also be given incentives such as more mobility, ease of travel, and mandatory test exemption.
‘Bite the bullet’
Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) President Emeritus George Barcelon said that if OCTA Research’s suggestion is guided by scientific evidence, then it is realistic to “bite the bullet”.
“Having said that, the suggested two weeks period, in case it will be announced, we don’t want it to be so sudden that everybody is caught flat-footed. It is important that a preparation period will be allowed for the business sector, and one of the issues here is the mobility of our workers. The government should be cognizant that the transport sector is important for workers. LGU must have a unified ruling, unlike before that every local government has its own ruling,” Barcelon said.
He said the government should also be ready to provide “ayuda” (aid) to those who will be temporarily barred from working, especially if the lockdown will be extended in the event that the government is unsuccessful in containing the spread of the Delta strain.
Also supporting Concepcion and Barcelon’s suggestion is FFCCCII President Henry Lim Bon Liong, saying that he is confident with the OCTA Research’s lockdown proposal.
“We have no choice and probably we have to follow the proposal based on the stringent study of OCTA. We hope that this will be helpful to stop the spread of the virus,” Lim said.
On the question of a negative impact on the economic recovery momentum, Concepcion, Barcelon and Lim agreed that the proposed two-week strict lockdown may turn economic growth negative, but they noted that “this sacrifice shall make the fourth quarter a Merry Christmas and 2022 shall be a fantastic new year for robust Philippine economic growth”.