Raging issues

A recent editorial of another paper on foreign relations between China and the United State suggested Marcos Jr.’s “policy errors” in getting too close to China and or the US. “May he not squander this chance,” the editorial added.

This “chance” may be slim. It is not that easy to balance foreign policy. It is a tightrope walk between two superpowers. When conflict heightens, say in a possible dangerous naval confrontation in the West Philippine Sea, both China and the US will force us to their sides. They will say, “You’re either for me or against.” It may be almost impossible to align with both. That is the nature of a looming proxy war.

The prospect of true neutrality is almost impossible, especially if we have given concessions to one or the other, conflicting ones at that. Ukraine can no longer be neutral because the current regime leans heavily on US-NATO and EU. A regime change to a truly strong neutral leader may work but that is farfetched because both sides will try to destroy that leadership. It is the same in the Philippines. We are in an age of powerful proxies.

Greed factor

Many financial analysts are issuing warnings of a dollar crisis that may induce a global recession, then a global depression, a looming housing super-bubble in the US, a Bitcoin bubble, etc. But no one is listening. Everyone is taking the frenzied bull-market bandwagon. People are blind to a possible financial disaster of unknown proportions. Ted Sazon, Elliott wave theorist, says the bull market started in 1982 and is soaring to the stratosphere until now. He predicts a sudden plunge.

Markets become bullish because of the mindset of many that it will rise again after a short plunge. But an empty rise not supported by real gains is an “illusion,” a catalyst to a sudden long-term drop. This is the greed factor being generated by blind minds and infecting the planet.

Will the US chip war versus China boomerang?

The Netherlands and Japan are selling chip-making machines to China, defying a US ban on such exports. The US is sending a lobby team to the Netherlands, but the Dutch most likely will not budge.

“It is important that we defend our own interests — our national safety, but also our economic interests,” Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher said on 23 November at the Dutch parliament. Japanese firms are “sick and tired of the decoupling with China imposed by the US,” Nikkei Asia chief editor Shigesaburo Okumara reported from the Trilateral Commission meeting in Tokyo last weekend.

If the US ban fails, it is simply hurting its own chipmaking producers and their Taiwanese chip allies, and giving the pie to non-US firms. The US is not isolating China. It is isolating itself.

Update to the EU energy crisis

A gas price cap, presently still a raging unimplemented issue in the EU, is futile as it ironically helps increase gas prices as the shortage lingers, including the liquefied natural gas that EU wants to buy to replace Russian gas. Actually, the EU, in theory, has no short-term gas crisis this winter because their storage bins are full to the brim. After winter is a different story, if new sources are not yet available on the scale needed.

Tightening The Ukrainian Noose

Ukraine was recently hit by a barrage of Russian missiles, putting out operations of three nuclear plants amid the onset of freezing temperatures. The Russian intent is to strangle entire cities in the hope that Ukrainian President Zelensky will capitulate. But surrender is far from his mind. Many civilian deaths are foreseen. Lord, please spare the innocent civilians of Ukraine.

Is cardinal tagle out?

Another daily has reported that Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle had been “sacked.” This is not necessarily true, as he was “retained” to assist in the turnover. This implies that he may still be in the good graces of Pope Francis, who may have been forced to fire everyone instantly without exceptions. Let us wait for new developments before we conclude that Cardinal Tagle was really “sacked” and is indeed out of the picture.

“The EU, in theory, has no short-term gas crisis this winter because their storage bins are full to the brim.

“The prospect of true neutrality is almost impossible, especially if we have given concessions to one or the other, conflicting ones at that.