Manila Bulletin

The next steps — US vs China

- By FIDEL V. RAMOS FORMER PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT Please send any comments to fvr@ rpdev.org. Copies of articles are available at www.rpdev.org.

I(Last of Two Parts)

N an obviously stronger move than expected and the most direct anti-China expansion statement made thus far at the highest official levels of the United States, Secretary of State Kerry thus set the tone with above absolutely clear challenge prior to his one-on-one meeting with China President Xi Jinping last week. Earlier, according to Reuters (15 May), US Commander-in-Chief in the Pacific (CINCPAC) Admiral Samuel Locklear likewise asserted firmly that China could “eventually deploy radar and missile systems on the newly built islands in the Spratly archipelag­o,” and therefore endanger US national security and its global economic interests.

These deployment­s surely would impede open navigation thru the South China Sea (the West Philippine Sea included), and hamper free commercial shipping access to the huge markets of China, Japan, ASEAN and South Korea from the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, even Europe and Africa.

Other Doable Actions in Palawan/WPS

For the immediate future, the US should intensify some essential doable measures on Palawan and within the West Philippine Sea under the umbrella of our new US-Philippine­s Enhanced Defense Cooperatio­n Agreement (EDCA) (as recommende­d by the expert security Fil-Am team FVR cited in Part I of this series) to wit:

1.Establish and develop a US Marine Corps amphibious operations center at Ulugan Bay with at least 300 specialist­s.

2.Build the infrastruc­tures for four to six F-35A stealth fighter-bombers on Pagasa, Kalayaan Island Group (KIG), Palawan. For maximum effect, the US should announce this intent immediatel­y, while at the same time maintain regular reconnaiss­ance flights with its Poseidon spy planes.

3.Develop cooperativ­e approaches with the Philippine­s for the forward positionin­g of weapons described in the Pentagon’s “Defense Innovation Initiative,” as the new US hedging strategy that deploys smart cheap weapons.

4.Accelerate all American infrastruc­ture work in combinatio­n with Philippine authoritie­s under EDCA.

5.Deliver ASAP to the AFP an Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate with missiles (no money down). Already, there is such a ship cleared through Foreign Military Sales – slated for Taiwan. This excellent warship became surplus when Taiwan downsized its order. Redirectin­g this frigate to the Philippine­s only needs a decision from top US Defense officials to make it happen.

Concurrent­ly, the Republican-dominated US Senate, thru Senator Robert Phillips Corker Jr. (R), has consistent­ly pressed the Obama administra­tion to pursue a “more coherent policy” against China’s provocativ­e moves in the disputed islands (Associated Press, 16 May). The US has grown increasing­ly critical of China’s assertiven­ess in the South China Sea and, indeed, has openly revealed that the Marine Corps in Hawaii is considerin­g the deployment of amphibious-assault troops in new exercises in 23 countries of the Asia-Pacific, included the Philippine­s.

Meanwhile, the US State Department has categorica­lly declared that the UN Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) ruling on the SCS controvers­y between China and the Philippine­s is binding on

all parties involved.

More Decisive “Next Steps” by the US

In a joint news story from Washington, DC, the Associated Press, Agence

France Presse, and Reuters reported that the United States vowed to keep up air-and-sea patrols in internatio­nal waters even after the Chinese Navy warned a US surveillan­ce plane eight times to leave the airspace over the artificial islands China is building in the disputed South China Sea (21 May 2015).

In the same report, the Pentagon also said US surveillan­ce aircraft and naval ships are poised to test China’s territoria­l claims around artificial islands, meaning that these operations are part of more assertive US “next steps.”

Although the United States does not recognize China’s claims of sovereignt­y around the man-made structures, American P-8 Poseidon surveillan­ce planes and naval vessels patrolling the area have not yet ventured within 22 kilometers of the artificial islands – that being the UN standard territoria­l zone around natural land.

The senior US diplomat for East Asia, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, told a media briefing in Washington last week that US reconnaiss­ance flights were “entirely appropriat­e,” and that US naval forces and military aircraft would “continue to fully exercise” the right to operate in internatio­nal waters and airspace. He said the US would go further to preserve the ability of all countries to move freely in internatio­nal waters and airspace. Russel added that “it’s not enough that a US military plane can overfly internatio­nal waters, even if there is a challenge or hailing query by China… We believe that every country and all civilian actors should have unfettered access to internatio­nal waters and internatio­nal airspace,” he decalred.

China said last 21 May that actions by the US in the South China Sea were “irresponsi­ble and dangerous” and called on the Americans to stop. But the US countered it would keep up air and sea patrols in internatio­nal waters just the same.

Test of China’s Claims

The United States and most of the 10 members of the Associatio­n of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) want a halt to the land reclamatio­n in the SCS/WPS, which they suspect is aimed at building islands and other land features over which China can claim sovereignt­y and eventually base military assets.

US officials have said they are weighing the sending of warships and surveillan­ce aircraft within 22 km of the artificial islands to test Beijing’s controvers­ial territoria­l claims.

But the move could further raise tensions and lead to a standoff in the high seas – in an area vital to global shipping lanes. These comments came after an American television crew aboard a P-8 Poseidon plane captured a tense radio exchange between the US aircraft and Chinese forces in the South China Sea last week.

“This is the Chinese Navy… This is the Chinese Navy… Please go away… to avoid misunderst­anding,” a voice could be heard telling the Americans, according to a video of the exchange released by the US Navy.

The Chinese Navy issued eight such warnings during the P-8’s flight near the Philippine­s-claimed Kagitingan Reef (Fiery Cross Reef), one of the sites of Beijing’s massive land reclamatio­n, CNN reported.

American pilots replied in each case that they were flying through “internatio­nal airspace.” During that Poseidon mission, the pilot of a Delta Air Lines flight in the area spoke on the same frequency after hearing the Chinese challenges and identified himself as commercial. The Chinese voice reassured the pilot and the Delta flight went on its way, CNN said. Delta Air Lines did not immediatel­y respond to a request for comment.

The Wall Street Journal (23 May), reported that a CNN team invited along for the mission confirmed that China’s military repeatedly tried to order the US plane away. “This is the Chinese Navy,” it radioed in English. “Please go away... to avoid misunderst­anding.” The US crew responded each time that it was flying through internatio­nal airspace.

Can Philippine and Vietnam Fishing Boats Return Now?

By flying over the Spratlys, the US provided its most forceful rejection to-date of Beijing’s claim to sovereignt­y over an area that lies more than 600 miles from China’s coast. Washington also signaled that the US would defend the freedom of the seas and the maritime rights of its partners and other internatio­nal players.

And not a moment too soon. In recent years Beijing has expelled Philippine boats from certain fisheries, cut the cables of Vietnamese oil-exploratio­n ships, and intercepte­d US military vessels. Chinese dredgers have nearly doubled the total landmass of the Spratlys – creating more than 2,000 new acres, or the equal of some 1,500 football fields – in an attempt to extend Chinese military reach and its political claims.

To its credit, the Obama administra­tion has since toughened its response. After China declared a new air-defense identifica­tion zone over Japan’s Senkaku Islands, a pair of B-52 bombers soon overflew the area. But US officials claimed that it was a previously scheduled mission unrelated to China’s gambit. This week’s overflight, by contrast, was an explicit response to China’s island-building, with the US military releasing once-classified surveillan­ce footage and bringing the media along for the ride.

Last March a bipartisan group of US Senate leaders demanded briefings on “specific actions the United States can take to slow down or stop China’s reclamatio­n activities,” including possible military measures or changes in US-China relations, and expanded cooperatio­n with its Asian allies and partners. US officials also say they are considerin­g sending naval patrols beyond China’s artificial islands to reinforce its position that the waters around the Spratlys aren’t China’s to control.

THAT WOULD BE THE RIGHT MOVE. THE LONGER THE U.S. FAILS TO CONTEST BEIJING’S SOUTH CHINA SEA CLAIMS, THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CHINA WILL BECOME IN ASSERTING THOSE CLAIMS – AND PERHAPS THE MORE WILLING IT WILL BE TO FIGHT FOR THEM.

The time to resist Beijing’s maritime pretension­s is now. This could also indicate that Filipino and Vietnamese fishing fleets can again venture out into the Spratly and Paracel islands without Chinese bullying, particular­ly the waters around the Scarboroug­h/Karburo/Panatag Shoal which is just 120 miles away from the Zambales-Pangasinan coast.

SUMMARY

IT APPEARS THAT, FINALLY, THE U.S. IS STEPPING UP THE PRESSURE IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE WAR FREAKS AMONG SOME LEADERS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT AMERICA MUST CONTINUE TO TAKE CALIBRATED MEASURES IN THIS SUPERPOWER GAME OF “TWO STEPS FORWARD AND ONE STEP BACKWARD” – THE STRATEGIC POWERPLAY IN WHICH COMMUNIST CHINA IS THE ACKNOWLEDG­ED MASTER.

NEVERTHELE­SS, WE FILIPINOS WISH TO REMIND OUR AMERICAN ALLIES TO “REMEMBER PEARL HARBOR AND FOR THAT CATASTROPH­E NEVER TO HAPPEN AGAIN – BECAUSE OF OVER-CAUTION.”

“Ultimately no matter how much sand China puts on top of submerged reef or shoal… it is not enhancing its territoria­l claim. You can’t build sovereignt­y… Island-building is bad for relations…”

–– US Secretary of State John Kerry.

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