A future world that is work-free

Many articles had been written about a world that involves fewer hours of work or totally work-free. Most will shrug it off as too far-out to happen because computers or robots unlike human beings do not have emotions. They say psychologists will be the last to be extinct with the advancement in technology because emotions can never be replaced by machines. But WedMd and Google are playing therapists and people are more open in sharing their problems to a computer than to human beings because they know it will not be passed on as gossips or be judged by what they reveal.

Thus, there is nothing with what technology cannot do. We may not feel the effect in the coming years, but down through the later years we may see it coming. A classic example is the horse. In an article entitled “A World Without Work” written by Derek Thomson for The Atlantic magazine, it mentioned how economists pointed to the vanishing importance of this second-most-important species in the US economic history.

The article described how for many centuries, people had been creating technologies to make the horse more productive and more valuable by inventing the plows and swords for battle – for farming and fighting. One would think that this will make the horse more important in the lives of humans. But horses and mules population began to decline significantly falling to nearly 50 percent in the 1930s and 90 percent by the 1950s with the invention of the tractor in the 20th century, car and the tank.

Just look at the comparison in the same article between AT&T which in 1964 is the most valuable company in the US. It was worth $267 billion in today’s dollars while employing 758,611 people. Compare it to Google today, which is worth $370 billion today while employing only 55,000 employees – less than a tenth the size of AT&Ts workforce in 1964. This is a realistic example on how technology can speed up jobs at the same time lessen labor costs.

But is this good or bad news for the labor sector. Are they supposed to be enthusiastic that a 40-48 hour work week will be replaced by a 15-hour workweek? The effect of advanced technology may not be seen in the coming years just as the effect of the personal computer was only felt in the 1990s – ten years after it was adopted in the 1980s quoting Henry Siu, an economist at the University of British Colombia.

In our industry for instance as accountants and auditors, whereas before it would take months to complete an audit or accounting work but now with computer-aided audit tools, one can have a 100% sample at a click of a keyboard and be able to come out with a report in less than a month. It used to be that working papers can be large enough to be used as a sleeping mat but in less than a decade the computer makes the working papers in hard copies obsolete.

This makes life easier for people who used to work long hours. But what will happen in the future when most of the work are already taken over by computers. There are many thoughts on this but 2 main ideas are very interesting. One, if people do not work, this will result not only to recession but depression. On the other hand, government support can help people overcome depression and channel their energy towards a more creative endeavor or an activity that they would love doing. The German government for instance encourages job sharing. Instead of reducing the number of people, they reduce the number of hours that people work by sharing their tasks to another.

The 2nd opinion is that during times when jobs are available a number of people are forced to do jobs they do not really love doing because the pay is good and they needed the money. But if jobs are scarce because these are being replaced with advance technology, people tend to seek to do things they most love but cannot do before. I tend to look in this direction where people are benefited by less work rather than the doomsayers’ predictions. Not because I am an optimist but because the facts supported it. So it is easier for me to believe we will be benefited with less work rather than the other way around.

Thanks to technology.

*** (Wilma Miranda is the Chairperson of the Media Affairs Committee of Finex, Managing Partner of Inventor, Miranda & Associates, CPAs and Treasurer of KPS Outsourcing, Inc. The opinions expressed herein are the views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of these institutions) wimiranda@inventormiranda.com