Mature and strong El Niño is here
A“mature and strong” El Niño has arrived, with the potential to become among the four strongest events since 1950, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
From a moderate strength in May, the El Niño reached a strong magnitude this month, with the possibility to intensify further before the end of the year, PAGASA added.
Various climate models have shown that the 2015-2016 El Niño event will potentially be among the four strongest events alongside the big El Niño episodes in 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.
The National Water Resources Board (NWRB) has been implementing lower water allocation for domestic use, and could further lessen the allocation until mid-2016 to cushion the impact of severe El Niño conditions.
From an allocation of 41 cubic meters per second (cms) last month, private water concessionaires are now utilizing 38 cms of raw water from Angat Dam.
National Water Resources Board (NWRB) Deputy Executive Director Jorge Estioko said the present water allocation can be followed by another reduction if the forecast does not improve.
Water allocation for domestic use could be further reduced to 37 cms by October, 36 cms in November, 35 cms in December and January, and 34 cms in February and March, based on the NWRB’s indicative water allocation.
Meanwhile, farmlands in Bulacan and Pampanga will not be receiving water allocation for irrigation until May next year.
“We have prepared this schedule of allocation but still subject to modification. We need to manage the water level in Angat Dam so we can sustain adequate water for the public until this El Niño phenomenon ends next year,” NWRB Executive Director Sevillo David Jr. earlier said.
PAGASA hydrologist Elmer Caringal said they expect that Angat Dam will be able to recover this month due to the likelihood of two to four tropical cyclones developing or entering the country’s area of responsibility.
As of Tuesday, Angat Dam’s level is at 187.21 meters, or 0.38 meters slightly higher than Monday’s 186.83 meters. However, Caringal said this is still way below the 210 to 212 meters flood season high water level of Angat Dam.
“Some light rains have occurred which caused a slight increase in the dam’s water level but still insufficient to reach its flood season high water level,” he explained.
“Rains from a typhoon or enhanced southwest monsoon that will directly fall over the watershed could significantly replenish the dam,” he added.
Based on the PAGASA rainfall forecast for September, most parts of the country will experience below normal rainfall, with patches of near normal rainfall in the provinces of Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Batangas, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, and Surigao del Norte.