Don’t be misled by mere opinion surveys
IN May, this year, all the opinion polls placed the Conservative and Labour parties at a statistical tie, with some pollsters predicting a victory of the Labour Party. After the ballots were counted, the Conservative Party of Prime Minister David Cameron was given an overwhelming mandate to govern for another five years.
Unprecedented four terms Harry S. Truman as vice president became president by succession after the death of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in April, 1945. Roosevelt had won an unprecedented fourth election in November, 1944.
Running on his own
In November, 1948, Mr. Truman ran for president on his own to give the Democratic Party a fifth term (20 years), an unheard of record in the history of US politics. In an ingenious piece of campaign strategy, Truman outraged the Republicans by calling a special session of Congress on July 26, immediately after the party conventions, challenging the GOP to carry out its platform promises to pass expanded social legislation.
When the Congress adjourned after 11 days without passing any of the legislation, Truman could effectively claim that the Republicans were not serious about their platform promises.
Truman’s defeat predicted Public opinion polls, newspapers, and magazines almost unanimously predicted Truman’s defeat. Undaunted, Truman set out on a “whistle-stop” campaign that ran from Labor Day to Election Day, travelling thousands of miles by train. He addressed himself to the common people, tirelessly denouncing the “do-nothing” Republican Eightieth Congress. Trumans’ homey appearance, his sincerity and seriousness won the crowds. “Give ’em hell, Harry!” the crowds shouted.
Astounding upset So certain were the experts of the outcome that when the first count of returns showed Truman leading, political commentators shrugged it off, and maintained that Gov. Tom Dewey was bound to win. But the pattern of the astounding upset continued throughout the night, and Dewey finally conceded defeat at eleven o’clock the next morning.
The jubilant Truman returned to Washington happily waving to crowds a copy of the Republican Chicago Tribune that carried the banner: “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
Wait for the last count One political analyst once said that the only reliable opinion is the result of the last count of vote. Our kind of political parties are loosely organized to deserve the label of family party.
The administration’s Liberal Party can be called a party of the members of Congress and the local officials who are too dependent on the national officials whose appointment or stay in office in turn depends on the President’s tenure. If all the LP incumbents, national and local, can be moved to wage an intensive campaign in the countryside, they can change all opinions and surveys announcing the party’s defeat.
Old gimmicks?
If the counting of votes is determined by honest machines the results can be announced in a matter of a few days. Such gimmicks as snatching and running away with ballot boxes can be avoided by letting machines count the votes.
LP has all advantages
There is no political party in the country today that can match all the advantages being enjoyed by the Liberal Party. All that the LP needs are a few experienced men/women who are familiar with our kind of politics. Counting by honest machines cannot be changed. It’s the act of recording the count on Comelec forms that needs our full concern before the records of votes for president and vice president are sent to Congress for the proclamation of the winners. It was hard for candidates in the May, 2010, presidential election to question an honest count by machines. (Comments are welcome at roming@ pefianco.com).