The Philippines in 2010 and 2016
(Second in a series)
OFFICIALS of the United States government, including President Barack Obama, have been vocal in issuing warnings and objections against China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea or West Philippine Sea against its neighbors.
They have also expressed not a few times their support for the Philippines, both in its diplomatic approach to the issue and to its efforts to strengthen its defense capability in the face of China’s expansionist moves.
During their meeting in Washington on September 25, however, Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping gave more emphasis on cyber crime, which has been affecting American businesses, than the disputes in the West Philippine Sea.
Reporting on the meeting, Reuters said the Obama administration was “still at a loss about how to curb China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea…,” while Xi defended China’s “right to uphold our own territorial sovereignty.”
According to Reuters, Obama’s approach was “tempered” because of the strong ties between the US and Chinese economies.
In my view, the meeting between the two leaders confirmed what many have been saying, that the Philippines cannot rely on the US to defend its right to parts of the West Philippine Sea even if these are recognized by international law as within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Xi denied that China’s reclamation activities in the West Philippine Sea were intended to create military strongholds.
On the date of the Obama-Xi meeting, however, Business Insider cited IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly as reporting about the completion of a major runway on the dredged Fiery Cross reef.
According to Jane’s, the 3,125 meterlong runway, complete with helipads, can be used for military operations, and is only one of many completed runways that China is building in the South China Sea.
The Philippines’ only military outpost in the area is about a dozen Philippine Marine personnel on board the RPS Sierra Madre, which was deliberately run aground on Ayungin Reef (Second Thomas Shoal) in 1999. The Chinese even harassed Philippine Navy vessels that were delivering food and other supplies to the marines.
Fishermen from Pangasinan and Zambales have also complained of harassment by the Chinese to prevent them from fishing at the Scarborough Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc, which is less than 200 nautical miles west of Masinloc, Zambales.
Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, a member of the Philippine team that presented the country’s position before the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague last July, said Scarborough Shoal was “not part of, and could never have been part of, Chinese territory.”
He said the oldest map in the world depicting Scarborough Shoal was the Murillo map made by Spanish priest Pedro Murillo and was first issued in 1734. During that time, Scarborough Shoal was known to Filipino fishermen as Panacot.
But China’s moves affect not only the small fishermen in Pangasinan but the national economy. Last March, London-listed Forum Energy Plc. suspended indefinitely, upon the advice of the Department of Energy, all offshore oil and gas drilling activities at the Reed Bank off Palawan because the area is part of the West Philippine Sea dispute.
According to Justice Carpio, China claims almost 90 percent of the West Philippine Sea under its nine-dash line map, which overlaps 80 percent of the Philippines’ EEZ. Thus, if China’s claim succeeds, the Philippines will lose 80 percent of its EEZ in the West Philippine Sea, including the Reed Bank and Malampaya natural gas field.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the West Philippine Sea contains about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Based on studies by the US Geological Survey, the EIA estimates that the Reed Bank alone has 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
According to Justice Carpio, the Philippines lost Mischief Reef in 1995 and Scarborough Shoal in 2012 to the Chinese, while Vietnam lost the Paracels in 1974 and Fiery Reef Cross in 1988.
The filing of the complaint with the Arbitral Court did not stop China from its aggressive moves. Numerous reports also show China’s continuing reclamation activities in the West Philippine Sea, including the construction of artificial islands and military facilities.
According to reports, China has reclaimed more than 1,173 hectares of land between December, 2013, and June this year.
Last August, China said it had stopped its reclamation activities. In a report on September 14, however, the Washington Post said China was still constructing artificial islands in the disputed area, particularly on Subi Reef and Mischief Reef.
The construction includes a new airfield, which The Post, citing the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said would enable China to control the air space over the region.
I don’t expect the dispute to be resolved before the change in administration in June, 2016. In my view, this is the biggest foreign policy issue that the next president will face.
It would have been better if the dispute is between two equals. Unfortunately, it is not, and that makes the West Philippine Sea issue a very difficult one. (To be continued)