When opinion surveys differ
FOR years now, public opinion surveys have come up with all sorts of findings on what the people think about various issues. Such economic issues as continued mass poverty have invariably come out as their principal concerns, ahead of such other issues as peace and order and relations with other countries.
Understandably, the government is concerned about the people’s perception of its performance and their trust and confidence in its officials. In the latest report of Pulse Asia, the President’s approval and trust ratings were a high 54 percent and 49 percent, respectively. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) in its own survey reported a plus-37 net satisfaction rating for the national government, which it described as “good.”
A few days later, the public relations firm EON released its Public Trust Index (PTI) 2015, which gave the Church the highest rating at 73 percent, followed by the academe at 51 percent, and media at 32 percent. The government had a rating of 12 percent; business, 9 percent; and non-government organizations, 9 percent. In the government, the PTI survey said, the Office of the President had a trust rating of 15 percent; the Senate had 10 percent; and the House of Representatives, 8 percent.
There is a glaring difference in the findings of the polling organizations on people’s trust in the government. It makes some people wonder about the capability and expertise of the various polling organizations and the reliability of opinion surveying in general. It recalls some spectacular failures of opinion surveying in the United States, notably one which led a major American newspaper to headline that Tomas Dewey, because of his big poll lead, had won over Harry S. Truman in 1946.
There is, of course, a measure of uncertainty in poll surveying. Respondents may not be as open as they should to survey interviewers. Actual election results in the Philippines may differ markedly from survey findings, and one reason for this is that Filipino voters can very easily change their minds for a variety of reasons.
Candidates may well use surveys to help and guide them in their campaign strategies and tactics. Government officials may use surveys to get a general feel of the people’s pulse on various issues, to help them draw up action plans to meet the people’s needs.
But they should not forget that surveying is not an exact science and is subject to a host of variables, such as the competence of the pollster and the readiness of the respondent to really voice his opinion. As for those of us who receive reports on survey findings, it would be best to have an open mind, wary about possible efforts to unduly influence us, especially in this election season.