A zero-emissions future
NEGOTIATIONS for a legally binding deal on reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are underway in Le Bourget, Paris. More than 100 world leaders, including President Aquino, have convened there for the 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
There is scientific consensus that the world needs to reduce current GHG emission levels by 70 percent before 2050 to keep the average rise of global temperatures below the 2OC threshold. Global warming beyond that threshold spells global catastrophe as typhoons are projected to become even fiercer and more frequent, and droughts hotter and lasting longer.
Past attempts at a global deal on reducing GHG emissions have failed. This time around, when average global temperature had risen by 1OC, a “no-deal” is not an option. Analysts have noted that even while the two top emitters’ (China and the US) recently came to an accord, the combined commitments made during the Paris negotiations achieve only a third of what is needed.
And this is because one confronts a sticky reality — economic development, which every nation owes its communities, is still a carbon- and emissions-intensive endeavor. While some have called for the roll-out of carbon taxes and “cap-and-trade systems” to manage emissions, a more long-term approach would be to focus on developing and deploying sustainable energy technologies — or as a recent New York Times article said, “…to help the world’s poor, and everybody else, onto a path to progress that doesn’t rely on burning buried carbon.”
One author proposes that a “space race approach” is needed for the planet, where large investments (both public and private) are directed and sustained towards researching and developing clean energy and energy efficiency technologies.
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven has pointed out in a speech this year, though, that ramping up investments in clean energy development and deployment is not happening fast enough, noting that annual government spending today on energy research and development (R&D) was only US$17 billion.
The IEA recommends that thrice this amount (roughly US$51 billion) should be invested each year to keep global warming below the 2OC threshold by 2050. This amount may be staggering but is considerably affordable, considering that Oxfam International estimated that developing countries could incur US$1.7 trillion in economic damages each year if global average temperatures rise above the 2OC threshold by 2050.
Hopefully, something positive may have occurred in Paris. On the sidelines of COP 21 last Monday, “Mission Innovation” was launched as a 21-nation initiative (that includes the US, Britain, Australia, Germany, China and Brazil) towards doubling the amount of public money going into clean energy innovation, research and development (R&D).
At the same time, Bill Gates (co-founder of Microsoft), Mark Zuckerburg (co-founer of Facebook), Richard Branson (chairman of the Virgin Group) and a host of billionaires, philanthropists and entrepreneurs announced they were creating a Breakthrough Energy Coalition that hopes to pour billions of dollars into clean-energy startups in a bid to jumpstart a clean energy revolution.
Clearly, to achieve a future where economic development is “decarbonized,” the world needs to chart new technological paths.