Weakening El Niño to still fuel hot weather

Warmer-than-normal weather will continue nationwide this year despite the weakening El Niño phenomenon.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the country will

still experience above-average temperature due to El Niño.

“We’re reminding people that warm days aren’t over yet so they must exercise precaution and prepare accordingly,” said Anthony Lucero, PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section OIC.

In its latest outlook this week, PAGASA forecast maximum temperature in the country to range from 30°C to 42.3°C this month, 29.7°C to 40°C in June and 28°C to 42.6°C in July 2016.

The country’s maximum temperature can range from 27.7°C to 37.5°C in August, 28°C to 40.4°C in September and 27°C to 39.6°C in October this year, PAGASA continued.

PAGASA said mean annual temperature in the Philippines is about 26.6°C only.

Observe precautions

“People must observe precautions against extreme heat,” noted Lucero.

According to Department of Health (DOH), exposure to high temperature can cause heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat injury, heat stroke and other illnesses.

Among DOH-recommended precautions against extreme heat are drinking more fluids and avoiding strenuous physical activity.

“Wear light clothing,” DOH also advised people.

Climate pattern

Experts said El Niño and the La Niña phenomenon are the corresponding warm and cool phases of a recurring natural climate pattern called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) across the tropical Pacific.

They noted an ENSO-neutral state is one in which conditions are near long-term average.

Citing latest available data, PAGASA said the prevailing but weakening El Niño will likely return to ENSO-neutral condition by mid-2016.

Rainfall

PAGASA clarified El Niño induced warmer-than-normal weather, rainfall shortage and drier-than-average conditions will still linger for some time after ENSO-neutral condition returns, however.

For May and June 2016, PAGASA forecast below-normal rainfall in Luzon and the Visayas but expects Mindanao to experience near-normal rainfall then.

Rainfall will still be belownormal in Luzon this July but near-normal in the Visayas and Mindanao that month, PAGASA said.

Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao will likely experience near-normal rainfall in August, September and October this year, PAGASA continued.

Drought

PAGASA also expects 37 provinces comprising some 46 percent of the country to experience drought by May 2016’s end.

Likely under drought by June’s end are 28 provinces comprising about 35 percent of the country, PAGASA further said.

“The southwest monsoon or ‘habagat’ is expected to be around by then but it won’t be enough to ease drought in the country,” noted Lucero.

He noted onset of the 2016 rainy season associated with “habagat” is likely between late May to mid-June.

PAGASA forecast incidence of drought to further ease, however, expecting this condition in 14 provinces, six provinces and two provinces by the end of July, August and September this year.

No drought by end October

“We expect no drought, dry spell and dry condition in the country by the end of October 2016,” Lucero said.

Drought is a condition marked by either three consecutive months of way belownormal rainfall or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, said PAGASA.

Dry spell is three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall while dry condition is two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, PAGASA added.