PAGASA expects fewer tropical cyclones

Government weather forecasters are expecting seven to 17 tropical cyclones to enter the country’s area of responsibility or form over Philippine waters from May to October.

On average, the country sees 19 to 20 tropical cyclones – a category that includes tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon and super typhoon – every year.

According to Anthony Lucero of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Impact Monitoring and Prediction Section, the county has recently experienced fewer tropical cyclones due to the lingering effect of El Niño phenomenon.

During the El Niño years 2009-2010, the country was visited by just 11 tropical cyclones. Last year, only 15 tropical cyclones have been recorded.

PAGASA noted that the El Niño event is currently in its decaying stage, returning to neutral condition, which is neither El Niño nor La Niña by mid-2016.

Meanwhile, it said the possibility of a developing La Niña is most likely towards the end of the year.

The country has been also experiencing more rains recently due to the approaching onset of rainy season associated with southwest monsoon. It is expected to commence between late May and mid-June.

While rains may already persist, PAGASA noted that warmer than average temperature is expected from May to October.

It said most parts of Luzon will experience below normal rainfall from May to July, and near normal rainfall from August to October.

Most parts of Visayas will experience below normal rainfall until next month, and near to above normal rainfall from July to October, while most parts of Mindanao have started receiving near to above normal rainfall.