Philippine-US relations turn frigid

UNDER President Duterte the Philippines will be moving away from its long-time ally, the United States. That is mainly due to Mr. Duterte’s hostile attitude toward America.

Before leaving for Vientiane, Laos, for the ASEAN summit last Monday, Duterte unleashed an inexplicable tirade against US President Barack Obama. The Philippine president warned Obama against bringing up human rights violations over the recent summary killings in the Philippines.

The Americans didn’t like Duterte’s attitude and cancelled a schedule meeting between the two presidents on the sidelines of the Vientiane summit. (That is the situation as I write this, unless the two sides eventually decided to salvage the situation and went through the motions of a tete-a-tete in Vientiane after all.)

Is the United States losing its closest ally in Southeast Asia?

Mr. Duterte has brought with him to the presidency a hostile attitude toward the United States. It appears to be a long-standing stance that Duterte has toward America.

Duterte’s attitude explains his friendly gestures toward the Communist New People’s Army and the aboveground leftist members of Congress. He also has shown a willingness to forge warmer relations with China and Russia.

This presages a shift in the Philippines’ relations with the outside world. It appears that gradually, the decadeslong love-hate relationship of the Philippines with the United States will turn cold at least for the next six years.

From the US cancellation of the scheduled meeting between Duterte and Obama in China, it appears the American president didn’t appreciate Duterte’s being a “colorful guy.” When asked by a reporter at a press conference in Vientiane, Obama cast doubt about the meeting with Duterte by saying that he preferred his meetings to be “actually productive,” meaning he felt it would have been counter-productive to meet Duterte.

And so the Americans aborted Obama’s meeting with Duterte. (Who’s willing to bet Duterte’s admirers will now say Obama got scared of Duterte and cancelled the meeting?)

The Americans have been smarting over Duterte’s undiplomatic remarks about the American ambassador being an SOB and gay. They summoned the Philippine charge d’affaires in Washington to explain Duterte’s remarks.

I see a souring of Philippine-US relations in the near future. The US may even downgrade their embassy in Manila by recalling or not appointing an ambassador and let a charge d’affaires hold the fort until a thaw in their relations. Already there’s been noise among US diplomats about “reviewing” US aid to the Philippines.

President Duterte is the kind of guy who doesn’t care about such things. He may even curse the Americans goodbye if they do decide to downgrade their representation in the Philippines.

Would a downgrade in US-Philippines diplomatic relations have negative consequences for the Philippines? Trade and aid from the US may go down as a consequence. American tourists may also decide to bypass the Philippines for other spots in Asia.

But, again, Duterte presumably will not worry about such possible developments. He may ultimately take the Philippines to closer relations with China, judging from his cautious stance over the South China Sea dispute despite the Philippines’ winning its case recently at the international arbitration court.

The Americans would prefer to keep the Philippines on its side as an ally. But, at the same time, they wouldn’t want to look silly wooing a sullen partner who wants out of the relationship.

The relationship will be tested in the coming years. Who will lose more in the LQ is hard to gauge for now. A lot will depend on Mr. Duterte’s stance.