OPEC output-cut deal keeps global oil prices buoyant

Global oil prices continued to rise in early Asia trade on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels.

The decision, which marks the group's first concerted effort to slash output since 2008, upended many analysts' expectations and sent prices soaring by more than 9% overnight.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in January recently traded at $49.47 a barrel, up $0.03 in the Globex electronic session. February Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.05 to $51.89 a barrel, the highest level in more than a month.

Asia Pacific energy stocks rose following the production deal. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. was 6% higher and Oil Search Ltd. rose 9.6%.

The OPEC cut represents about 1% of global production, which will help to reduce a supply glut that has depressed prices for more than two years. The promised cuts include significant reductions by heavyweights including Saudi Arabia, the group's most powerful member and de facto leader.

Analysts say the biggest question remains enforcement, as OPEC has no authority to make its members to comply. OPEC members have a record of cheating by producing beyond their allotted quotas.

"People are going to be watching closely if the group can now actually live up their pledges," says Stuart Ive, a client manager at OM Financial.

Under the pact, Saudi Arabia is expected to take the lion's share of the cuts by slashing production by 486,000 barrels a day. Iraq agreeing to curb output by 20,000 barrels a day. Meanwhile, struggling producers such as Iran, Nigeria, and Libya were exempt from the deal, as their production has been hampered by sanctions and militant attacks.

The group is expected to reassess the effectiveness of the deal, which will take effect in January, in six months.

"While we acknowledge that OPEC's track record of delivering on production cuts has historically been poor, on a net basis we expect this to tighten crude markets," said Scott Darling, the head of AsiaPacific oil and gas research at J.P. Morgan.

The implementation of the deal is expected to accelerate the rebalance of supply and demand in the market, which will likely shift to a 500,000-barrel deficit in the first half of next year, Bernstein Research said. It also said the deficit could rise to more than 1 million barrels a day by the second half of next year.

Higher prices, however, are likely to cause more US shale producers to increase production.

The latest production data from the US Energy Information Administration showed US production increased by 9,000 barrels a day to 8.7 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 25.

"There is a real risk that higher prices could reactivate more dormant shale oil," said ANZ Research, which expects international oil prices to hit strong resistance at around $60 a barrel in early 2017.

Moreover, a price increase of $10 to $15 a barrel may also blunt the appetite of some oil consumers in Asia who beefed up inventories recently by buying when prices were in the $40 range, analysts say.

Another wild card is the cooperation of non-OPEC producers, who are expected to decrease production by 600,000 barrels a day. Russia said it would cut production by 300,000 barrels a day, though it isn't clear how much of that will come from already expected declines, Morgan Stanley said.