Stormy first quarter?
THE first quarter of the year appears to be a time of political upheaval. This is not my idea. This was the observation expressed recently by a fellow local government official who joined me over coffee recently. We were talking about the so-called EDSA revolutions. The conversation drifted towards the subject matter as my colleague noted that preparations for the usual February 25 celebration of People Power is not as frenzied this year as it used to be in the past.
My colleague wondered why Filipinos have the penchant of overthrowing sitting presidents during the First Quarter. He pointed out that EDSA One which marked the exit from power of the late President Ferdinand Marcos took place in a February. EDSA Dos, which paved the way for the replacement of President Erap Estrada by then Vice President Gloria Arroyo took place in a January.
“Is it easy to make the Filipino angry during the first quarter of the year,” my colleague asked aloud. He added that one of the most violent episodes in contemporary Philippine history had been aptly called the “First Quarter Storm.”
He dissected his own postulate. He said that the first quarter of the year is a time ripe for collective discomfort and discontent. This is the time of the year that is right after the Christmas season of the previous year. During the first few months of the year, Filipinos realize that they have spent last year’s savings on gifts and holiday expenses. The family coffer is empty and major expenses – including the payment of taxes and tuition fees – are staring at them.
The other reason could be plain first quarter jitters. The year begins with uncertainties. Uncertainties breed nervousness. Nervousness could easily be converted into hostile behavior. This is because people need to have an outlet for the uneasiness brought about by the unpredictable nature of life as emphasized at the beginning of the year.
Is there a deliberate attempt to raise the level of political conflict in the country again at this time of the year?
Again, not my view but that of my colleague. He explained his point. He said it appears that recent developments seem to be conniving to spark anger and to polarize the public.
Among them, he said, are the emotional probe going on in Congress in connection with the incidents involving former immigration officials, an alleged gambling lord and other ranking members of the government.
He wondered if the recent ruling by the Presidential Electoral Tribunal junking the bid of Vice President Leni Robredo to have the protest of former Senator Bongbong Marcos stopped could pave the wave for heated public discussions.
Add to this, he said, the unending uneasiness over the government’s antiillegal drugs campaign and the supposed failure of the peace talks with leaders of the Communist Party of the Philippines. And then, there’s the challenge revived by a senator for the President to bare his bank account amid allegations of hidden wealth.
Do all these point to a stormy first quarter? My colleague believes so. I say otherwise. Our view is that the current developments in the political arena are within the range of “normal” despite the apparent rising intensity of the conflict.
These developments invite us to be aware of and to accept the fact that life is filled both with conflict and uncertainties. We cannot do away with it. It is a mainstay feature of our life. The sooner we can accept that reality, the faster we can adapt to it and address our feelings of uncertainty.
These are the bases of this political reality. First, conflicting interests. Second, opposing values. Third, diverse political missions. Politics came to be because Man must have realized that there are as many interests as there are people. Politics is the art of the compromise, some say. The compromise is necessary so that the intense clash of interests would not result in the annihilation of those who are weaker by those who are stronger.
Our view is that politics is the eternal search for the often-evasive win-win.
Our aspiration is that our politics would help us find steps and solutions that allow for as many people and communities as possible to benefit from the scarce economic and social opportunities available in the country.
Violence happens when those involved in the game of politics begin to entertain the idea that the clashing of interests could no longer be resolved by the established methods of debates, discussions, and consensus-building. The game becomes dangerous when the players start to believe that the better way is the annihilation of one by the other.
Stormy first quarters can give way to calmer second quarters, more productive third quarters, and fourth quarters of the year marked by the joy of achievements.
That can be made possible when we do our best to swim above the intensifying first quarter conflicts and keep our eyes focused on our meaningful goals for the year.