Challenge and opportunity: Pax Asia-Pacifica
18 November 2017
CHINA and the Philippines have long sparred over the South China Sea, although their relations have improved considerably under President Duterte. Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and the Philippines claim some of the South China Sea and its myriad shoals, reefs, and islands, while China claims most of the waterway and has been aggressively building and militarizing artificial islands. Hence, the continued “shadow-fighting” and heightened tensions.
The above-quoted joint statement said China and the Philippines reaffirmed the importance of peace in the South China Sea and of freedom of navigation and overflight. There should be no violence or threats of violence and the dispute should be resolved via talks between the “relevant sovereign countries,” it added.
Given the recent developments in both China and India, a new wave of growth is rising in Asia. And this new wave of growth holds tremendous opportunities for all in the Asia-Pacific.
SUCH FORTHCOMING REGIONAL PROGRESS ALSO POSES A CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR ASEAN COUNTRIES – AND THAT IS, FOR US TO PRESERVE THE UMBRELLA OF PEACE AND STABILITY THAT HAS ENABLED VIRTUALLY THE WHOLE OF EAST ASIA TO DEVELOP AT THE WORLD’S FASTEST RATE DURING THESE LAST 30 YEARS. CHINA’S CENTRALITY
THIS CHALLENGE WILL NOT BE EASY TO RESOLVE – SINCE ASIA DOES NOT LACK FLASHPOINTS OF POTENTIAL CONFLICT. IN ITS DRIVE FOR GREATPOWER STATUS, CHINA WILL CONTINUE TO RESTORE ITS HISTORICAL CENTRALITY IN EAST ASIA BY WAY OF ITS RECLAMATION AND MILITARY REINFORCEMENT OF CERTAIN REEFS AND ISLETS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
THE U.N. ARBITRAL RULING OF 12 JULY 2016 IN FAVOR OF THE PHILIPPINES ON THE SO-CALLED NINE-DASH LINE OF IMPERIAL CHINA HAS BEEN TRULY WELCOMED BY MOST IN ASEAN •••• EXCEPT THOSE NOW ALIGNED WITH CHINA… BUT FOR THE MOMENT, THIS IS NOT ENFORCEABLE •••• SO. THAT’S ANOTHER STORY.
Then there are the potential flash points over energy resources, in rising Islamic militancy in the Philippines, Indonesia and other SEA countries and, most worrying of all, the unstable, newly-nuclearized Pyongyang regime on the Korean Peninsula.
A MAJOR COMPONENT OF THE EQUATION IS, OF COURSE, THE U.S., WHICH HAS REGARDED ITSELF – SINCE THE 1890S – AS AN ASIA-PACIFIC POWER, AND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ASSERT ITS ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SECURITY INTERESTS IN OUR REGION. IMPROVED PHILIPPINECHINA RELATIONS?
LAST WEEK, SND DELFIN LORENZANA SAID THE MULTILATERAL DECISION NOT TO FURTHER BOLSTER MILITARY BUILDUPS IN THE REGION IS BASED ON THE COMMITMENT OF ASEAN MEMBER-NATIONS’ TO RESPECT SOVEREIGNTY AND DIALOGUE IN SETTLING TERRITORIAL DISPUTES.
He said: “There’s no need for a Philippine military buildup in the Spratlys archipelago as the security environment in the region is seen to have greatly improved under President Duterte •••• ” (Philippine Star, 18 November 2017)
Beijing, which claims almost the entire South China Sea and whose island building activities have sparked tensions in the region, has agreed on the need for a Code of Conduct (COC) to avert miscalculation in disputed waters.
The cessation of military buildups in the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea would also pave the way for the unhampered development of civilian/military facilities on Pagasa Island and other outposts in the Kalayaan Island Group.
OUR GOVERNMENT IS BUILDING A PORT ON PAGASA ISLAND TO ALLOW NAVY CARGO VESSELS TO UNLOAD CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF FACILITIES THEREIN, INCLUDING THE CONCRETING OF AN AIRFIELD GOOD FOR HEAVY TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT. CHINA AS GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASEAN
IN THE FACE OF POTENTIAL CONFLICTS, THE SMALLER SOUTHEAST ASIAN STATES SHOULD INTENSIFY THEIR LONG-AVOWED COMMITMENTS AT ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIO-CULTURAL CONSOLIDATION BY WAY OF A NEW ASEAN CHARTER RATIFIED LAST NOVEMBER 2007 DURING THE TENURE OF PRESIDENT GMA. (PLEASE VISIT OUR FVR COLUMN, MANILA BULLETIN, 19 NOVEMBER 2017)
As ASEAN plus China expands to incorporate Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, all of Asia should be able to sustain economic growth from within itself – because of its increasingly wealthy homemarket and its large savings pool.
Not coincidentally, economic cooperation has generated political side-benefits. For instance, an informal agreement has enabled China and the Philippines (later joined by Vietnam) to set aside the sovereignty issue in their conflicting claims on the Spratlys, thus enabling their national oil corporations to explore jointly for hydrocarbon resources.
NEVERTHELESS, THE ASEAN STATES SHARE JAPANESE APPREHENSIONS THAT, AS CHINA’S POWER INCREASES, THE LATTER MIGHT START TO DICTATE THE RULES FOR REGIONAL TRANSACTIONS – WHETHER IN TRADE, INVESTMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT, OR EVEN SECURITY. REGIONAL INTEGRATION AS THE GLOBAL NORM
OVER THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AN EAST ASIAN ECONOMIC GROUPING – EVEN IF IT TAKES OFF – IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP BEYOND A FREE-TRADE AREA, TO MATCH EARLIER INTEGRATION MOVEMENTS IN EUROPE AND IN THE TWO AMERICAN CONTINENTS.
Right now, the Asians are still a long way from reducing the trade barriers among themselves and creating a single homemarket that can rival China’s in the eyes of foreign investors.
Given the stalemate in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) in further liberalizing global trade, regional aggregations to create economic scale will likely become the building blocks of global trade and investment over these coming decades. Certainly, all the ASEAN leaders live with the apprehension that the alternative to regional unity is to become marginalized in global economic competition.
AMONG THESE REGIONAL GROUPINGS, SOUTHEAST ASIA COULD BECOME THE GREATEST – SINCE IT WOULD HAVE VIGOROUS GROWTH ENGINES – CHINA, JAPAN AND INDIA – PLUS UPCOMING ONES LIKE SOUTH KOREA. FROM PAX AMERICANA TO PAX ASIA-PACIFICA OVER THESE NEXT 10-15 YEARS, THE TASK FOR OUR STATESMEN WOULD BE TO REPLACE THE AMERICAN PEACE (PAX AMERICANA) THAT HAS ENFORCED STABILITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION WITH A
UNLIKE THE AMERICAN PEACE – WHICH AT BOTTOM IS EXCLUSIVELY BASED ON AMERICA’S MILITARY MIGHT – AN ASIA-PACIFIC PEACE WOULD BE THE “PEACE OF VIRTUAL EQUALS.”
A shift from (or peace and security guaranteed by the power of American arms) to a in our region could well be the answer in which the major countries and sub-regional blocs adhere to the concept of SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea). SOLAS is the primary mission of the Philippine Coast Guard, which consists of the two components of maritime law-enforcement, and calamity prevention and mitigation.
As regional neighbors and partners, we now should exploit the convergence of interests that the U.S.; Japan; China; India; Russia; ASEAN; Canada; Pakistan; Australia-New Zealand; a unified, nuclear free Korean Peninsula; and others share in a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific – just as the western Europeans exploited the Cold War stalemate between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. to consolidate and expand the European Union.
The Asia-Pacific Peace will be a cooperative security system based not on the “balance of power” but on the “balance of mutual benefit.” Clearly, this concept will involve burden-sharing by all nations in the Asia-Pacific in contributing forces to insure the region’s peace and security. It must be built on a collaborative agreement among the most affluent, and most powerful, countries in our part of the world – the United States, Japan, India and China.
INDEED, A CONSTRUCTIVE CHINESE ROLE IN HELPING TO ORGANIZE THE ASIA-PACIFIC PEACE WOULD DEMONSTRATE CHINA’S COMMITMENT TO BECOMING THE “RESPONSIBLE STAKEHOLDER” THAT WASHINGTON HAS CHALLENGED BEIJING TO BECOME.
THEREFORE, THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD), SUCH AS NUCLEAR MISSILES, AIRCRAFT CARRIERS, FIGHTER-BOMBERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE EDUCATIONAL ASSETS, HOSPITAL SHIPS AND RECOVERY HELICOPTERS TO FIGHT POVERTY, HUNGER, DISEASES, CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT GAPS – WHICH ARE NOW THE UNIVERSAL ENEMIES OF MANKIND.
OUR MULTILATERAL SHIFT FROM MUTUALLY-ASSURED DESTRUCTION (MAD) TO SOLAS WILL SURELY PROLONG MAN’S BOUNTIFUL SURVIVAL. THE NUCLEAR THREAT: COOPERATION OR COMPETITION?
THE TOP U.S. NUCLEAR COMMANDER WAS QUOTED BY THE INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AS SAYING LAST WEEK THAT HE WOULD RESIST PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IF HE ORDERED AN “ILLEGAL” LAUNCH OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. CBS NEWS REPORTED AIR FORCE GEN. JOHN HYTEN, COMMANDER OF THE US STRATEGIC COMMAND (STRATCOM), SAID THESE WORDS TO AN AUDIENCE AT THE HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL SECURITY FORUM IN NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA.
THAT’S GOOD ENOUGH TO TRUMP PRESIDENT TRUMP.
AT THE END, OF COURSE, RELATIONS AMONG THE GREAT ASIA-PACIFIC POWERS WILL ALWAYS BE AN INTERPLAY OF COMPETITION AND COOPERATION.
THE STRATEGIC CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR ALL OUR COUNTRIES, LEADERS AND ORGANIZATIONS DEVOTED TO REGIONAL COOPERATION TO ENSURE THAT THE SPIRIT OF COOPERATION IS ALWAYS STRONGER THAN THE COMPETITIVE IMPULSE.
ONLY IF WE ARE ABLE TO OPTIMIZE OUR CARING, SHARING AND DARING FOR EACH OTHER AND FOR THE YOUNGER ONES AFTER US WILL WE BE ABLE TO RIDE THIS COMING WAVE OF SUSTAINED PEACE AND PROSPERITY FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL OUR PEOPLES.