US-Nokor/Sokor summit?
WHY not, indeed? In an earlier column about the “North-South Korea Olympic Reunion,” FVR welcomed warming-up relations between North and South Korea, (Manila Bulletin, 18 February 2018), thus: “It was reported that Seoul seeks to further ease tensions for a possible summit in Pyongyang between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-In (Reuters, 13 February 2018), to wit:
The visit of the NoKor delegation, which included leader Kim Jong Un’s younger sister Kim Yo Jong, intrigued many in South Korea, especially the skeptics, about the North’s willingness to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
During the visit, Kim Yo Jong delivered a letter from her brother asking South Korean President Moon Jae-In to visit Pyongyang at his earliest convenience. President Moon replied, ‘Let’s create the environment for that to happen,’ according to the Presidential Blue House in Seoul.
SUCH A MEETING, IF IT COMES ABOUT, WOULD MARK THE FIRST INTER-KOREA SUMMIT SINCE 2007. THE TWO KOREAS ARE STILL TECHNICALLY AT WAR AFTER THE TERRIBLE 1950-53 CONFLICT ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA ENDED IN A CEASEFIRE BUT NOT A PEACE TREATY. THE ROK UNIFICATION MINISTRY SAID STEPS REGARDING THE IMPROVEMENT OF TIES WOULD NOW BE TAKEN BY THE TWO KOREAS, IN COOPERATION WITH STAKEHOLDER COUNTRIES (LIKE THE PHILIPPINES) AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. UNEXPECTED U.S.-NOKOR SUMMIT
THUS, WITH THE PYONGYANG SUMMIT BETWEEN NOKOR LEADER KIM JONG UN AND SOKOR PRESIDENT MOON JAEIN YET TO MATERIALIZE, MANY EXPRESSED APPREHENSION ABOUT KIM JONG UN’S SINCERITY WHEN U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED THAT THE NORTH KOREAN LEADER HAD ALSO INVITED HIM FOR A SUMMIT.
North Korea just recently tested its most powerful nuclear weapons to-date and launched three intercontinental ballistic missiles theoretically capable of striking the American mainland. It remains to be seen whether a summit, if it takes place, could lead to any meaningful breakthrough after such an unusually provocative year.
WILL THERE BE A BREAKTHROUGH? FAILURE? OR MERELY THE START OF ANOTHER LONG AND DIFFICULT PROCESS MEANT TO TERMINATE NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES IN EXCHANGE FOR SANCTION-FREE RELATIONS WITHIN THE UNITED NATIONS? WHY NOW?
ANALYSTS SAY TRUMP’S DECISION TO ACCEPT KIM’S INVITATION FOR A SUMMIT COULD BE LINKED IN PART TO HIS DESIRE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACHIEVEMENT IN HIS MOST DIFFICULT FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGE BEFORE THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS COME NOVEMBER. ON THE OTHER HAND, KIM SEEMS DESPERATE TO SAVE A SANCTIONS-BATTERED NORTH KOREAN ECONOMY.
Both leaders have interests in striking a big deal. Should this happen, the summit between Trump and Kim will come shortly after a planned meeting between Kim and SoKor President Moon Jae-in in April. It’s likely that North Korea will also push for summits with China, Russia and Japan later to further break out of its isolation.
TRUMP MAY ALSO TRY TO ACHIEVE SOMETHING DRAMATIC IN HIS MEETING WITH KIM, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE EXCHANGE OF COMMITMENTS ON THE DENUCLEARIZATION OF NORTH KOREA AND A PEACE TREATY BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.
HOORAY, HOORAY!!!, SAY THE FILIPINO VETERANS OF THE 1950-‘53 KOREAN WAR, PARTICULARLY FVR. WHERE TO MEET?
THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH KOREA WILL LIKELY BE TALKING QUITE A BIT IN COMING WEEKS AND EVEN EXCHANGING HIGH-LEVEL DELEGATIONS TO SET UP THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE SUMMIT. ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS IS – WHERE IT WILL TAKE PLACE???
The US would surely prefer Washington, while North Korea will want Trump to come to Pyongyang, its capital. Unless the countries agree to a third-country location, which would likely be South Korea, most analysts see it more likely that Trump will fly to Pyongyang.
While no incumbent US President has ever set foot in North Korea, Trump might be willing to become the first because it would fit the strong-willed, in-your-face type of leadership he projects. It’s hard to imagine Kim going to Washington because he is much less diplomatically experienced; the planned meeting with President Moon this April will be his first with any state leader since he took power in 2011.
They could also meet in the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone between the rival Koreas or, perhaps, the South Korean resort island of Jeju.
A big question will be whether Trump will negotiate a freeze of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs rather than denuclearization. Kim will likely want to keep some nuke weapons as deterrents, but that might be hard for Trump to tolerate when he spent so much time harshly criticizing his predecessor, Barack Obama, for allegedly just watching as North Korea became a nuclear nation.
WHILE SOME EXPERTS SPECULATE THAT NORTH KOREA MIGHT ALSO ASK FOR THE WITHDRAWAL OF U.S. TROOPS FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THIS SIGNALS AN IMPORTANT RETURN TO THE PAST WHEN THE NORTH ABSOLUTELY REJECTED THE U.S.-SOUTH KOREA ALLIANCE. WHAT EACH SIDE MIGHT ASK FOR
THE WHIRLWIND EVENTS OF THE PAST MONTH MIGHT BE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR PERIOD IN 1994, WHEN FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON CONCLUDED A MAJOR NUCLEAR AGREEMENT BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND PYONGYANG. UNDER THEIR “AGREED FRAMEWORK,” NORTH KOREA HALTED CONSTRUCTION OF TWO REACTORS DESIGNED AS NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR WHICH THE U.S. OFFERED TWO ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS TO PROVIDE ELECTRICITY (NOT BOMB FUEL), AND 500,000 ANNUAL METRIC TONS OF FUEL OIL FOR NOKOR.
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright traveled to Pyongyang in 2000, amid talks of a summit between President Bill Clinton and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, father of Kim Jong Un. But there was no such arrangement made before George W. Bush’s election. The Agreed Framework broke down after US intelligence agencies said North Korea was doing a second way to make nuclear bombs, using enriched uranium.
BY PURSUING A SCARY NUCLEAR PROGRAM AS A BARGAINING CHIP, NORTH KOREA IS CLEARLY A DIFFERENT COUNTRY NOW FROM WHAT IT WAS TWO DECADES AGO. BUT, PRESIDENT TRUMP IN JUST HIS SECOND YEAR IN OFFICE AND FACING A SIMILARLY STRONGWILLED LEADER EAGER TO DIRECTLY BREAK A DIPLOMATIC DEADLOCK, COULD BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO CUT A MEANINGFUL DEAL WITH NORTH KOREA THAN CLINTON WAS AT THE END OF HIS PRESIDENCY. NOW COMES ASEAN
THE BOLD GESTURE OF THE NORTH KOREAN LEADER THROUGH HIS SISTER – OF INVITING THE PRESIDENT OF SOUTH KOREA – TO VISIT PYONGYANG IS “PEACE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT” IN THE MAKING. WE DON’T BELIEVE THE HEART OF KIM JUNG UN IS HARDER THAN A ROCK. WE CAN SEE THIS IN HIS BODY LANGUAGE.
HE IS A HUMAN BEING, PROBABLY CAPABLE OF CARING, SHARING AND DARING.
THE ASEAN COMMUNITY SHOULD SUPPORT AND HELP NURTURE THESE RECENT PRECIOUS DEVELOPMENTS, INSTEAD OF IGNITING MORE FIRES. AFTER ALL, WE FILIPINOS ALSO ADHERE TO THE “ONE KOREA” CONCEPT, JUST LIKE THE “ONE VIETNAM” – NORTH/SOUTH – STRUCTURE. ASK THE PEFTOKS AND THE PHILCAGS.
MOST EVERYBODY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC DESIRES A GOOD SLEEP DEVOID OF FEAR THAT MISSILES MAYBE FIRED INSTANTLY FROM VARIOUS PLACES – FROM NORTH/ SOUTH, FROM EAST/WEST.
VIGILANCE SHOULD BE OBSERVED ALL THE TIME – WITHOUT BEING USED TO BULLY ONE ANOTHER. LET US GIVE PEACE A CHANCE!!! TERRORISM, ANYONE??? WORLD WAR III, VLADIMIR-XI-KIMDONALD??? NO WAY!!!
PRESIDENT DU30 SHOULD OFFER THE MALACAÑANG GOLF COURSE AS THE BEST VENUE FOR THE COMING U.S.– NORTH KOREA SUMMIT.
WHY?? BECAUSE THE PHILIPPINES IS “NUMERO UNO” WHEN IT COMES TO CADDIES/ UMBRELLA GIRLS, HEALTHCARE/HOSPITALITY, MULTIETHNIC ORIGINS, CUISINE/ BEER, MULTI-FAITH RELIGIONS, MULTI-CULTURAL APPROACHES, MULTI-SKILLED WORK FORCE, AND GENDER EQUITY – ACCORDING TO P.DU30’S CABINET.
BUT, NOT IN DANGEROUS DRUGS AND HUMAN RIGHTS, ETC.