The warming political season

AS the political season warms up leading to the start of the 2019 campaign period in a month’s time, thoughts recall the last elections and how this exercise has changed the way we do politics.

While the rest of the Philippines moved on, it seems that the opposition has not. Their incessant hammering at the same old issues may be a disservice to their chosen candidates for senator that, understandably, have remained at the bottom of pre-election surveys.

Looking back at the 2016 elections, it is clear how this same brain trust leading the current opposition was outthought, the campaign team outfoxed, and in the end, outvoted. They probably all assumed they were loved by a loyal voter base that would stand by them.

They were wrong. The truth is that they never had that base that could win the presidency for Mar Roxas. The other truth was that this base, conservatively set by opinion firms at 20% of the electorate after successive surveys, never grew as they hoped.

Strategists and so called experts always thought Mega Manila is the key to winning a national election, since its dense population accounts for more than half of the voter base. In this they are correct. Of course there is electoral fraud that tips the vote but that’s a story for another column.

But they erred on two counts. The first was the idea that Mega Manila will always support a candidate it counts as it’s own – like Jejomar Binay or Grace Poe. Second, they always thought that a guy from Mindanao will never win a presidential election. In both respects, history was on their side.

Come election day, however, they were all wrong, and had to recalibrate their lenses for the changes that took place after.

What they failed to understand is that Mega Manila votes for someone they believe will win, which explains why surveys often detect the most drastic shifts in voter support come from these areas. Recall that this area turned within the 90-day period, dropping erstwhile frontrunners Jejomar Binay and Grace Poe for the Mayor from Davao.

The same pattern happened in 2004, when erstwhile front runner in Mega Manila Raul Roco quickly lost ground to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Fernando Poe Jr., and how Mar Roxas lost a mighty lead to Jejomar Binay in the 2010 vicepresidential elections.

What surprised them, and all others was that there was an underbelly of potential support, primarily based in southern Philippines that they never thought to be important in winning elections, especially in one where victory is determined by a plurality. They mobilized public opinion that carried support that brought many votes, even from Mega Manila.

The political intelligentsia in Manila working for the previous government’s political machine grossly underestimated these people. They were outsmarted by a team working out of a building in Davao.

Two and a half years since their defeat, they are still picking up the pieces, trying to cook up new vitriol to pour on the president they want the world to hate. This negative campaigning only hardens his support base that gets noisier and more aggressive when challenged.

The result: Successive surveys show that despite their best efforts, the President’s trust and satisfaction ratings are way higher than their political leaders’ they hoped would gain traction in the run up to the 2019 elections.

They were stuck with a constant attention to presidential statements and mannerisms hammering away at government for two things that people actually supported – the war against drugs and the tough stance against terror in Mindanao.

This seems to have prevented them from crafting a proper political message that can increase their voter base, or cultivate a strong following for an alternative political leader from their ranks that is credible and winnable, that can rally this voter base.

Instead, by their efforts to get people to challenge the President, the opposition may have unknowingly hardened and restrengthened his base in preparation for the 2019 elections.

How the opposition will fare in May, 2019, is anyone’s guess.