Don’t expect confrontation in coming Beijing meeting

WHEN President Duterte visits China starting August 31, he said he will take up with China President Xi Jinping the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016.

The ruling basically ruled that China has “no historical rights” based on a map it produced in 1947 claiming sovereignty over about 80 percent of the South China Sea (SCS) covered by a nine-dash line looping around the SCS. The court declined to “rule on any question of sovereignty over land territory and would not delimit any maritime boundary between the parties.”

China from the beginning said it would not participate in the arbitration proceedings and when the court issued its decision on July 12, 2016, China rejected the ruling. After the ruling, 38 countries expressed support for it while 4 opposed it, and 4 were neutral.

But there is no way the ruling can be enforced. “There is no power on earth presently that can enforce the ruling,” said Malacañang spokesman Salvador Panelo when pressed why the Philippines is not using it to fight China’s claim to some islands in the South China Sea. “The United Nations cannot. The United States cannot. Who will enforce it?”

When President Duterte assumed office in 2016, he acknowledged this fact and he chose to work with

China instead on various economic development programs. Possibly the biggest of these ventures will be a joint exploration for oil, gas, and other petroleum products in the Reed Bank area near Palawan, with a 60-40 percent sharing of the proceeds in favor of the Philippines. This is similar to the 60-40 sharing agreement with a Shell-led consortium in the Malampaya natural gas project.

When he said he will take up the Arbitral Court ruling when he meets with President Xi Jinping in Beijing, President Duterte will not be making any demands on China under that the Arbitral Court ruling, as some of his critics hope he will. He will probably state it without demanding that China accept it. They will then proceed to discuss projects and programs the two countries can undertake together without fighting over matters of sovereignty.

China itself has called for the settlement of any disputes in the South China Sea through negotiation and consultation. This is exactly what will happen when the two presidents meet in Beijing – not confrontation, not any demand to carry out the Arbitral Court ruling. The ruling will be there, a part of our history, but the reality is that it cannot be enforced. Perhaps sometime in the future, negotiation and diplomacy will be able to achieve what the ruling cannot.