May, June, July?

Possible months when the Luzon lockdown may (or should) be lifted? The wise paradigm of “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst” is never far from policy-makers brain-storming several options to address fluid events affecting domestic survival.

The temptation to relax (partial-lifting) of strict protocols for business and economic reasons may prove to be counter-productive since a significant cross-section of our population remains untested. Note: “Absence of evidence is not evidence that is absent.” While the Luzon “enhanced community quarantine” (ECQ) is extended to April 30, situational awareness of foreign “best practices” in relation to Philippine conditions prompts lucid appreciation of realities on the ground. In the first week of April, Wuhan, China, lifted its lockdown. Reports leaking in social media and Western news platforms told of “re-introductions” in the province. Patients who got well, were re-infected. Models/charts of the COVID-19 acceleration, trajectory, and peaks in other countries, show a time-line beyond our adjusted deadline for Luzon. Studies and graphs abroad illustrate variances, with the end of April to May as apex of their battle with the virus. The plateau of infections abroad is several months further down the road.

In our case, there have been breaches in the uncoordinated national-LGU declarations of violations of social distancing, face mask policy, etc. Even assuming, nearzero infections by July, the potential for relapse and exponential spread, will stalk our society. If and when the country is declared COVID-free, should government gamble, opening our borders to international flights? Foreign tourists arriving from undisclosed itineraries? Or do we maintain a border shut-down, while lifting internal ECQs?