Concepcion sees economic rebound by Q4
Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship and Go Negosyo founder Joey Concepcion sees economic rebound by the fourth quarter this year with the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination program and the further relaxation of quarantine restrictions in the entire country.
Concepcion said this following the arrival of Sinovac vaccines from China and of
AstraZeneca vaccines from the COVAX facility. The government has already started vaccination on Monday, March 1, for medical frontliners and the military using the 600,000 doses of Coronavac vaccines donated by China.
Conception recommended placing the entire country under Modified General Community Quarantine (MGCQ) as the vaccination begins to boost domestic tourism and allow the economy to open more.
“As we vaccinate, we must put the entire country into Modified General Community Quarantine, boost domestic tourism to recover faster, and allow the economy to open more. This is the last and only chance for our micro and small entrepreneurs to come back strong and utilize the fourth quarter as the start of their bounce back,” Concepcion said.
A Dose of Hope Concepcion expects that by May this year, the country will receive the first batch of around 2.6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccines under the “A Dose of Hope” program. The third quarter will be where the remaining 14 million doses will be delivered, this includes the second batch of orders from the private sector and the LGUs. Also, we are expecting other brands such as Moderna and Novavax to arrive in the third quarter. These are all on top of the national government’s vaccine orders which initially started coming this week from the Sinovac vaccines from China to the AstraZeneca vaccines that will come from the COVAX facility, among others, Concepcion added.
If the vaccine inoculation goes well during the second and third quarter, Concepcion said the Philippine economy would see an economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
“With vaccines to start coming in by May onward, especially in the third quarter, that will bring in a lot of confidence. Remember 2022 is an election year – that is the biggest stimulus when people start to spend behind election,” Concepcion said.
“The last quarter of 2021 which is Christmas, I believe is going to be the chance for many of our MSMEs to get back on their feet. That should be the time the economy must really be bouncing back," he added.
That’s why, he explained, the private sector is putting a lot of pressure on the arrival of the vaccines and the implementation has to be excellent.
Upon the arrival of the vaccines, he said, people must be vaccinated so that by the fourth quarter, consumer confidence would increase. “Then we’ll have spending because of the Christmas season and the elections which would complement the numerous stimulus packages such as the Bayanihan 2, the CREATE bill, and the proposed Bayanihan 3. In the success of all of these, our economy shall rebound in the fourth quarter, then we could look forward to a better 2022,” Concepcion added.
“Talking to one of the biggest financing companies in the country, it seems that many micro and small enterprises are affected because they told me that loans below P500,000 are not being paid, while bigger amounts are being paid. You can see the effect of our economic problem and how it is affecting the smaller entrepreneurs. Their lifelines in the banks are not as big as the medium and large companies, and I believe that as the vaccines arrive, we should open up the economy more. That’s why our goal is to pursue all avenues from testing to vaccination,” Concepcion said.
Even as Metro Manila remains under General Community Quarantine (GCQ), more economic sectors, such as traditional cinemas and meeting, incentives, conventions and exhibitions, have been opened on a limited scale.
Meanwhile, Concepcion suggests that schools shall continue to be administered online for children’s safety.