COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR down to 1.16 - OCTA

The coronavirus disease (COVID19) reproduction number in Metro Manila has further decreased but the OCTA Research Team said Friday, April 16, the region may still see a high number of new cases in the coming weeks.

In its latest report, OCTA said the reproduction number in Metro Manila decreased to 1.16 on April 9 -15.

“With two weeks or more of negative one-week growth rates, downward trends were observed in the cities of Pasay, Manila, Marikina, Taguig, and Mandaluyong,” OCTA said.

With an average of 5,085 cases per day over the past week, OCTA pointed out that Metro Manila’s COVID-19 growth rate was at negative (-) 0.4 percent.

Moreover, the positivity rate in the region was down to 24 percent from 25 percent during the previous week.

“While the trend has slowed in the NCR (National Capital Region), the region will continue to have a high number of new COVID-19 cases for the next weeks, which means demand for hospital care in the NCR will not ease very soon,” OCTA said.

“People must continue to strictly comply with prevailing health guidelines in order to help prevent the spread of the virus in the region,” it added.

At present, hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 in Metro Manila is at 65 percent while intensive care unit (ICU) utilization is at 85 percent.

OCTA noted that Metro Manila still has majority of COVID-19 cases (47 percent) reported last week.

It is followed by Calabarzon (20 percent), Central Luzon (11 percent), Cagayan Valley (5 percent), and Western Visayas (4 percent).

OCTA observed that new cases in Calabarzon and Bulacan grew by 14 percent while it increased by 97 percent in Western Visayas. It is lower in Cagayan Valley at negative (-) 14 percent.

The largest one-week growth rate in the “NCR Plus” area (Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Bulacan) was recorded in Kawit, Cavite, which had 83 new COVID-19 cases per day over the past week, an increase of 417 percent compared to the previous week.