COVID-19 cases keep rising
PH records 2nd highest daily tally at 14,249; NCR reproduction number increases to 1.85
Although various parts of the country are under strict quarantine protocols, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) surge continues, while the reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) also increased. In the latest report of the Department of Health (DOH), the Philippines recorded 14,249 new COVID19 cases on Saturday, August 14, the second highest single-day tally since the pandemic hit the country. The new cases pushed the country’s total number of confirmed cases to 1,727,231, of which, 5.7 percent or 98,847 are still active cases.
Ninety-five percent of active cases have mild symptoms, one percent are asymptomatic, 0.8 percent are critical, 1.4 percent are severe, and 0.95 percent are in moderate condition.
Last Friday, August 13, the country recorded 13,177 new COVID-19 cases, while a day before the daily tally of new cases was 12,439.
The death toll also increased by 233 to 30,070 or 1.74 percent of the COVID-19 case count. The recovery count also rose to 1,598,314 after 11,714 more patients recovered. The country's recovery rate is at 92.5 percent.
Reproduction rate
in NCR rises
While the DOH reported a steady increase in daily cases the past three days, independent research group OCTA reported that the reproduction number in Metro Manila increased to 1.85 from 1.76 two days ago despite being under the strictest quarantine protocol.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.
“We expected R0 [reproduction number] to decrease almost immediately after the start of ECQ [Enhanced Community Quarantine].This happened last March [2021] and August 2020. Either the restrictions are not sufficient – too many people still going about – or the Delta variant is proving to be much harder to stop,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in his Twitter post.
During the Aug. 7 to 13 monitoring period, OCTA reported that the seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila had a growth rate of 50 percent to 2,901. Its seven-day average of new cases was 1,930 during the previous week.
The average daily attack rate (ADAR) or incidence rate in Metro Manila was also reported to be at 20.77 cases per 100,000 population, meaning it is already under “high risk.”
Navotas City has the highest ADAR at 47.67, followed by Makati City at 37.19, and Pasay City at 29.44. An area with an ADAR of over 25 is already classified as “critical risk.”
Meanwhile, Metro Manila's intensive care unit or ICU occupancy, in general, remains at “moderate” risk.
“Pataas pa rin ang trend ng ating mga kaso (The trend of our cases is still increasing),” said DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire during a televised public briefing on Saturday, August 14.
Vergeire flagged 54 areas in the country due to their “moderate to critical” risk classification for COVID-19 and that their hospital bed utilization rate is more than 70 percent.
These areas are the following:
Metro Manila
1. Las Piñas
2. Malabon
3. Makati
4. Marikina
5. Muntinlupa
6. Navotas
7. San Juan
8. Pateros
9. Quezon City
10. Taguig
11. Valenzuela
Cordillera Administrative Region
1. Apayao
2. Baguio City
3. Benguet
Region 1
1. Dagupan City
2. Ilocos Norte
Region 2
1. Cagayan
2. Quirino
Region 3
1. Angeles City
2. Nueva Ecija
3. Pampanga
4. Tarlac
5. Olongapo City
6. Zambales
Region 4A
1. Batangas
2. Cavite
3. Laguna
4. Quezon
5. Lucena City
6. Rizal
Region 5
1. Naga City 2. Masbate
Region 6
1. Aklan 2. Antique 3. Guimaras 4. Iloilo 5. Iloilo City
Region 7
1. Bohol
2. Cebu
3. Cebu City
4. Lapu-Lapu City
5. Siquijor
Region 8
1. Ormoc City
2. Tacloban City
Region 10
1. Bukidnon
2. Cagayan de Oro City
3. Camiguin
4. Lanao del Norte
5. Misamis Oriental
Region 12
1. North Cotabato
2. General Santos City
3. South Cotabato
Caraga
1. Agusan del Sur
Critical risk areas
As this developed, OCTA flagged the cities of Tuguegarao, Imus, Malolos, Cebu, Cagayan de Oro, and Meycauayan as critical risk areas in terms of COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) and intensive care utilization rate (ICUR).
From Aug. 7 to 13, OCTA reported the ADAR in the following:
1. Tuguegarao City was at 47.39
2. Imus City, 29.20
3. Malolos City, 28.52
4. Cebu City, 28.29
5. Cagayan de Oro City, 26.54
6. Meycauayan City, 25.05. The ADAR or incidence rate refers to the number of new daily cases per 100,000 population.
The ICU occupancy rates are the following:
1. Imus City, 100 percent
2. Meycauayan City, 100 percent
3. Tuguegarao City, 91 percent
4. Malolos City, 86 percent
5. Cebu City, 85 percent
6. Cagayan de Oro City, 85 percent
Makati City, Santa Rosa City, and General Trias were also flagged as critical risk areas in terms of their ADAR (37.19 and 32.32, respectively), while their ICU occupancy rates remain at “high risk” (74 percent, 77 percent, and 83 percent, respectively).
Some areas have reached critical ICU occupancy but their ADAR is still under the high-risk category, which means the COVID incidence rate is below 25 cases per 100,000 population.
These are Bacoor (100 percent ICUR; 24.58 percent ADAR), Tanza (100 percent; 22.28 percent), Malabon City (100 percent; 21.70 percent), Cainta (100 percent; 17.0 percent), Dasmariñas (100 percent; 16.33 percent), San Fernando (97 percent; 19.66 percent), Muntinlupa City (86 percent; 22.11 percent), Iloilo City (86 percent; 16.03 percent), and Davao City (86 percent; 10.07 percent).
OCTA said the country's current seven-day average is 10,708--up by 30 percent from 8,217 during the previous week.
It said the country is considered as “critical” in terms of positivity rate (22 percent), or the percent of PCR tests that yielded a positive result, and reproduction number or infection rate (1.45).
Meanwhile, about 67 healthcare workers in Tuguegarao City in Cagayan, are now infected with COVID19, Mayor Jefferson Soriano said.
The infected healthcare workers are among 773 active cases in the city.
Soriano believes that one of the reasons for the high number of cases is the number of home isolations who could infect other households. (With a report from Liezle Basa Iñigo)