COVID state in NCR improves OCTA says surge may have likely peaked, but DOH believes otherwise
The current surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases may have already hit its peak in Metro Manila, independent research group OCTA said on Saturday, Sept. 18.
“Early indications are that the surge may have already peaked in the NCR [National Capital
Region], but efforts must be sustained to ensure the trend continues downward,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a Twitter post.
He warned that the trend can be easily reversed if the public does not exercise proper caution.
But the Department of Health (DOH) said the growing number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has not yet reached its peak.
23,134 new cases
On Saturday, the DOH reported 23,134 new COVID-19 cases, raising the total number of active cases to 184,088.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said they are still studying the trends of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila.
“Hindi pa po natin masabi sa ngayon. Kasi itong peak, pag sinabing (peak), ito yung pinakamataas na makukuha nating numero at pagkatapos noon ay patuloy na bababa (We can't say yet. When cases peak, it means the highest number of cases has already been logged and after that cases will decrease),” Vergeire said Saturday.
Vergeire noted that last week, Metro Manila recorded 8,000 new cases in a single-day. The cases then went down to at least 5,500. However, cases increased again to 5,800.
“So, tataas, bababa. At this point in our analysis, hindi pa natin nakikita na nag-peak na tayo dito sa mga kaso. Pinag-aaralan po nating maiigi iyan (The number of cases increases then decreases. At this point in our analysis, we have not yet seen that we already reached the peak of cases. We are still studying this),” said Vergeire.
Infection rate down to 1.22 David said the current reproduction number of COVID-19 in the region has further decreased to 1.22 from 1.25. On Friday, Sept. 17, 5,156 new cases were reported in the NCR.
OCTA has been hoping that the reproduction number will decrease to below one to see a reduction in the actual number of daily reported COVID-19 cases.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.
OCTA also said that Metro Manila's positivity rate, or the percentage of PCR tests that yielded a positive result, has slightly decreased to 24 percent from 25 percent.
The ideal positivity rate set by the World Health Organization is five percent.
“Due to the backlog, expect that there will be days when cases could still spike. Efforts must be sustained because trends may still reverse, i.e. cases may increase again if care is not taken," David said.
He said the country's reproduction number remained at 1.20 with a one-week growth rate of four percent on Friday.
David also noted that the country's seven-day average of COVID-19 deaths is at 204.
High-risk regions Vergeire, meanwhile, said that 12 regions in the country are still classified as high-risk for COVID-19. These are the NCR, Cordillera Administrative Region, Calabarzon, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Ilocos region, Caraga, Davao region, Western Visayas, Soccsksargen, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao.
Alert system defended Meanwhile, Vergeire defended the implementation of the alert level system with granular lockdown in Metro Manila. She said the government is pilottesting the new system in the NCR in a bid to further improve the measures and indicators in deciding the appropriate restriction.
“Actually wala naman po talagang perpektong sistema (Actually there is no perfect system),” she said.
Vergeire stated this after the Healthcare Professionals Alliance Against COVID-19 (HPAAC) said last Sept. 16 that the alert system in Metro Manila “does not reflect the true situation on the ground.”
The HPAAC then urged the government to “acknowledge and address the inadequacies of our data reporting system that forms the basis for the alert levels.”
“Naririnig po natin ang mga health professionals natin sa kanilang mga rekomendasyon. Nakapag-usap na po tayo with them (We listened to the recommendations of our health professionals. We have already talked to them),” said Vergeire.