PH may have 1 or 2 tropical cyclones in Nov. — PAGASA
One or two tropical cyclones may enter or form within the country’s area of responsibility this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its climate outlook for November.
The names of the next tropical cyclones on PAGASA’S list are Kabayan and Liwayway.
Based on the PAGASA’S climatological record, there are four potential cyclone tracks in November.
A tropical cyclone may form in the western Pacific and enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) but may recurve towards the northeastern part of the PAR before moving toward Japan or Korea. This cyclone may not make landfall over the Philippines.
A cyclone may make landfall in Southern Luzon, Northern Luzon, or Central Luzon, before recurving toward Japan or Korea.
A cyclone may make landfall in the central Philippines, before moving toward Vietnam.
A cyclone may make landfall in southern Visayas, before moving toward Thailand.
‘Moderate’ El Niño persists
Although tropical cyclones are still expected, most parts of the country will experience “generally way-below to below-normal” rainfall, with a “very high” probability of below-normal rainfall this month due to the presence of a moderate El Niño.
PAGASA warned that the El Niño may strengthen in the coming months.
This means that the effects of El Niño on the country may become more intense and last longer.
PAGASA said that by December, most parts of Luzon will have below-normal rainfall, while most of Visayas and Mindanao will have “near-normal” rainfall.
It pointed out that there is a 40 to 45 percent probability of below-normal rainfall in most of the country by the end of the year.
Except for some areas in Luzon and Mindanao, where near-normal rainfall is expected, most of the country may experience way-below to below-normal rainfall by January 2024.