2-year push back of 2023 exports target likely
The country’s exports target this year of $126 billion may be pushed back, two years probably, due to challenges in the global market beyond the control of the Philippines that affect the domestic economy, particularly exporters, according to the industry’s top official.
Sergio Ortiz-luis Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport) said that his personal guess is that the $126 billion exports growth target this year may be pushed back – a couple of years.
“It is always a moving target because of several factors,” he said citing high inflation and threats of salary increases that exporters fear the most, and even investors.
This makes the Philippine Exports Development Plan (PEDP) always dynamic, he explained.
In fact, the electronics and semiconductor industry, the country’s largest dollar earner, already projected that exports this year could decline by as much as 10 percent over last year. In August this year, the country’s exports increased by 4.2 percent to $6.7 billion from $6.43 billion in August 2022. But on a year-to-date basis, the country’s exports decreased by 6.6 percent or a total of $47.81 billion from $51.18 billion in the same January-august period last year.
Under the PEDP, the government revised its export revenue target to $126.8 billion by the end of 2023.
The PEDP also targets $143.3 billion in 2024; $163.6 billion in 2025; $186.7 billion in 2026; $212.1 billion in 2027; and $240.5 billion in 2028. This translates to an average annual growth of 11 percent of the Philippine exports of goods and services.
He, likewise, said that the country’s exports may grow a low single digit only this year as growth is seen in the latter part of the year.
For next year, he said, the outlook is better. “I think we are outpacing our neighbors although our neighbors have already higher base,” he said.
Growth would still be driven by services, including tourism and allied industries like transportation, and business process outsourcing.
Ortiz-luis also noted that with the relaxation of mining policies, the sector could potentially contribute bigger to the country’s exports growth next year.