NEDA sees shorter El Niño in 2024

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the duration of the El Niño weather event may be shorter than initially estimated by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said on Friday, December 22, that the upcoming El Niño, which is expected to affect 80 percent of the country, may peak in April, a month earlier than the initial forecast of May.

Balisacan said that PAGASA presented their latest assessment of the El Niño phenomenon during their most recent meeting.

“In our briefing the other day, PAGASA provided us new information that the earlier forecast that the El Niño would peak in May, current data now show that peak would occur in April,” Balisacan told reporters.

“It looks like it's going to be a shorter El Niño phenomenon and that should be good for us, for the economy. But still, we will not loosen our guards,” he added.

The NEDA chief admitted earlier that the economy may not be able to reach the higher end of the government's 6.5 percent to eight percent growth target next year due to global headwinds and the impact of El Niño.

He stated that El Niño, expected to persist until the second quarter of 2024, could potentially cause a spike in consumer prices.

Even with the shorter El Niño, Balisacan said the government will continue to monitor local consumer prices, particularly rice, due to potential risks.

“So as rice is concerned, we need to ensure that our stakeholders have access to food even if the production is not enough to meet domestic consumption.” Balisacan said.

With this, the government maintained the reduction of tariff rates on rice at 35 percent until next year.

Meanwhile, the economic team has settled the inflation target rate at two percent to four percent for 2024 until 2028.

The poverty incidence, on the other hand, eased to 22.4 percent during the first six months of the year.

This positive figure, Balisacan said, will make it possible to reach the nine percent target by 2028.