Moody’s raises PH growth forecasts
Moody’s Analytics has revised higher its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.9 percent for 2024 and 2025 from its earlier 5.8 percent estimate announced in February.
In an April 12 APAC (Asia Pacific) Outlook report, it noted that the Philippines along with Vietnam and Indonesia will lead the region in terms of economic performance this year and in 2025. However, the 5.9 percent forecast is lower than the government’s recently revised 2024 GDP target of six percent to seven percent and 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for 2025.
For 2026, Moody’s Analytics which is also referred to as Moody's, forecasts Philippine GDP will grow by 6.1 percent, still lower than the Marcos administration’s growth target of 6.5 percent to eight percent for 2026 until 2028.
“Economies in South and Southeast Asia will see some of the strongest output gains this year, but their performance is flattered by a delayed postpandemic rebound,” said Moody’s.
It projects that the ASEAN group of countries will grow 4.5 percent after four percent in 2023 with “Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia leading the pack at growth rates of 5% or more.”
With the adjusted growth rate, Moody’s also expects Philippine inflation for this year to average 3.5 percent, 3.2 percent for 2025 and a flat three percent for 2026. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects a higher riskadjusted inflation forecast for 2024 of four percent and 3.5 percent projection for 2025.
“Inflation is past its peak in developed Asia—which includes Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong—and in developing Southeast Asia—which includes Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia,” said Moody’s.
It added that headline inflation in developed Asia “has moderated in large part thanks to lower global prices for oil and gas, which these countries need to import.”
“Developing Southeast Asia, on the other hand, has benefited from slowing inflation for food, which makes up a larger share of household spending in this part of the region than in developed Asia,” said Moody’s. (Lee C. Chipongian)